Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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086 FXUS61 KOKX 180741 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 341 AM EDT Wed Jul 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds across the region today through Thursday and slides offshore on Friday. This gives way to low pressure and a frontal boundary that could impact the area through early next week, with unsettled weather expected.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Surface high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes, but a trough axis aloft will shift towards us. This could bring some diurnal cumulus, but overall it`ll be a sunny day and feel much more comfortable than recent days as dewpoints drop into the 50s. High temperatures mostly in the mid and upper 80s. There is a moderate risk of rip currents today at the ocean beaches due to a 3 to 4 ft southeast swell maintaining waves around 3 ft in the surf zone.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
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The upper trough axis slowly moves through tonight and exits east on Thursday, allowing for deep-layered ridging. Mostly clear conditions through the period with a continuation of comfortable dewpoints. Low temperatures will be near normal for the most part, but radiational cooling will allow temperatures to drop into the low 50s for some of the northernmost suburbs and Long Island Pine Barrens Region. High temperatures for Thursday will be near normal. There is a low risk of rip current development at the ocean beaches on Thursday.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Blocked pattern expected through this time frame, with a ridge over the southwestern United States, and a large ridge remaining anchored over the Atlantic. Ridge initially over the northeast will give way to lowering heights across the Great Lakes region, as a longwave trough develops and extends southward from the Great Lakes region, with the trough axis remaining perched to our west Saturday through Tuesday. Our area remains on the western periphery of the Atlantic ridge. For the local region, dry and clear weather will be replaced by an increase in clouds, and possible showers/thunderstorms late Saturday into early next week. An initial coastal low approaches ahead of upper shortwave that pivots northward ahead of the trough, which could provide our first round of rain late Saturday into Sunday. Thereafter, low pressure and frontal boundary weakens or washes out, but unsettled conditions will persist as the trough remains stationary. Weak to marginal instability will remain present, and a shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out through the period. Temperatures will remain near normal (perhaps slightly below normal Saturday with increasing onshore flow ahead of cstl low), before rising some late in the period. Humidity levels increase after a relatively comfortable day Friday.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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High pressure builds towards the region from the Great lakes through tonight. VFR, with SCT 050-070 ft cloud deck in the late afternoon/evening. N/NNW gusts of 15 to 20 kt likely developing during the morning push and continuing into early afternoon. Winds should remain right of 310 magnetic an left of 040 magnetic through the day. .OUTLOOK FOR 06z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .Wednesday-Saturday...VFR. .Sunday...MVFR or lower in showers and thunderstorms.
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&& .MARINE...
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A tranquil period over the next couple of days as high pressure builds in with winds around 10 kt or less. Ocean wave heights will be mostly 2 to 4 feet. Tranquil winds and seas continue Thursday night through Friday night as high pressure remains in control. The high will give way to low pressure and associated frontal boundary this weekend and into early next week. Persistent onshore winds will result in building seas this weekend, especially over the ocean waters.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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Dry weather for today through at least most of Saturday. An extended period of unsettled weather is forecast beginning Saturday night into next week. Hydrologic impacts are uncertain at this time, but heavy downpours are possible at times during this expected unsettled weather pattern.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) remains off the air for an extended period of time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/PW NEAR TERM...JC SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...NV MARINE...JC/PW HYDROLOGY...JC/PW EQUIPMENT...

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