Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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480 FXUS61 KOKX 181713 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 113 PM EDT Wed Jul 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds across the region through Thursday and slides offshore on Friday. This gives way to low pressure and a frontal boundary that could impact the area through early next week, with unsettled weather expected.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Minor adjustments made to current forecast with this update. Surface high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes, as upper trough works across the area. This could bring some diurnal cumulus, but overall it`ll be a sunny day and feel much more comfortable than recent days as dewpoints drop into the 50s. High temperatures will be close to seasonable, in the 80s. There is a moderate risk of rip currents through this evening at the ocean beaches due to a 3 to 4 ft southeast swell maintaining waves around 3 ft in the surf zone.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... The upper trough axis slowly moves through tonight and exits east on Thursday, allowing for deep-layered ridging. Mostly clear conditions through the period with a continuation of comfortable dewpoints. Low temperatures will be near normal for the most part, but radiational cooling will allow temperatures to drop into the low 50s for some of the northernmost suburbs and Long Island Pine Barrens Region. High temperatures for Thursday will be near normal. There is a low risk (west) to moderate risk (east) of rip current development at the ocean beaches on Thursday due to residual 2 ft S and SE swells. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Blocked pattern expected through this time frame, with a ridge over the southwestern United States, and a large ridge remaining anchored over the Atlantic. Ridge initially over the northeast will give way to lowering heights across the Great Lakes region, as a longwave trough develops and extends southward from the Great Lakes region, with the trough axis remaining perched to our west Saturday through Tuesday. Our area remains on the western periphery of the Atlantic ridge. For the local region, dry and clear weather will be replaced by an increase in clouds, and possible showers/thunderstorms late Saturday into early next week. An initial coastal low approaches ahead of upper shortwave that pivots northward ahead of the trough, which could provide our first round of rain late Saturday into Sunday. Thereafter, low pressure and frontal boundary weakens or washes out, but unsettled conditions will persist as the trough remains stationary. Weak to marginal instability will remain present, and a shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out through the period. Temperatures will remain near normal (perhaps slightly below normal Saturday with increasing onshore flow ahead of cstl low), before rising some late in the period. Humidity levels increase after a relatively comfortable day Friday. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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HIgh pressure builds towards the region from the Great Lakes through tonight. VFR, with SCT 050-070 ft cloud deck in the late afternoon/evening. N/NNW gusts of 15 to 20 kt likely developing during the morning push and continuing into early afternoon. Winds should remain right of 310 magnetic an left of 040 magnetic through the day. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Occasional N gusts to 15-20 kt likely between 13z and 19z. Winds should remain right of 310 magnetic and left of 040 magnetic through most of the day, but there is a low probability of a late day weak S seabreeze. The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KLGA TAF Comments: Occasional N gusts to 15-20 kt likely between 13z and 19z. Winds should remain right of 310 magnetic and left of 040 magnetic through the day. The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KEWR TAF Comments: Occasional N gusts to 15-20 kt likely between 13z and 19z. Winds should remain right of 310 magnetic and left of 040 magnetic through the day. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: Occasional N gusts to 15-20 kt likely between 13z and 19z. Winds should remain right of 310 magnetic and left of 040 magnetic through the day. KHPN TAF Comments: Occasional N gusts to 15-20 kt likely between 13z and 19z. KISP TAF Comments: Occasional N gusts to 15-20 kt likely between 13z and 19z. .OUTLOOK FOR 06z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .Wednesday-Saturday...VFR. .Sunday...MVFR or lower in showers and thunderstorms.
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&& .MARINE... A tranquil period over the next couple of days as high pressure builds in with winds around 10 kt or less. Ocean wave heights will be mostly 2 to 4 feet. Tranquil winds and seas continue Thursday night through Friday night as high pressure remains in control. The high will give way to low pressure and associated frontal boundary this weekend and into early next week. Persistent onshore winds will result in building seas this weekend, especially over the ocean waters. && .HYDROLOGY... Dry weather for today through at least most of Saturday. An extended period of unsettled weather is forecast beginning Saturday night into next week. Hydrologic impacts are uncertain at this time, but heavy downpours are possible at times during this expected unsettled weather pattern. && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) remains off the air for an extended period of time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/PW NEAR TERM...JC/DW/PW SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...MD/NV MARINE...JC/PW HYDROLOGY...JC/PW EQUIPMENT...//

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