Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 251856 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 256 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will approach from the south today, and then pass across the area tonight along with a trailing cold front. The low will move into New England on Thursday. Another low will move through on Friday, followed by a cold frontal passage over the weekend. High pressure will then build in early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Steady rain has moved up into eastern Long Island and CT, with mainly scattered showers to the west. With dry slot moving up into the area expect a break in the precip going into this evening, then return of showers tonight as the weak sfc low moves across and takes a cold front with it, aided by lift from an accompanying negatively-tilted mid level shortwave trough. Meanwhile, with the pressure gradient relaxing tonight and plenty of low level moisture remaining, expect areas of fog to develop, with potential for the fog to become dense before cold fropa, particularly across Long Island and southern CT, which both NARRE/HRRR time-lagged ensembles are flagging for highest probabilities of vsby less than 1/4SM and 1SM, respectively. Fcst low temps tonight are on the warmer side of the MOS envelope, in the upper 40s and lower 50s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Gusty WNW flow expected along with mostly sunny skies for the most parts after the mid level shortwave passes through. A closer mid level low passing just to the north may help provide enough lift for sct-bkn Cu development in the afternoon, more so inland. With downslope flow and mixing to between 875-850 mb expect high temps to ne near 70s in NE NJ and well into the 60s most elsewhere. Thu night should start mostly clear, then become mostly cloudy overnight as another low begins to approach from the SW. Low temps should be in the 40s and lower 50s per MOS blend.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The ECMWF and GFS are in very good agreement with low pres tracking thru the area Fri. The sys is the remnants of the upr low currently over Neb. The modeling indicates a weak sys as the low runs out ahead of an approaching upr trof. The thermals indicate all rain. The timing is late Fri and Fri ngt attm, although some timing changes cannot be ruled out. A more intense low would be possible if the upr trof arrives quicker, or if the remnant low slows. A cold front then brings a chc for some more shwrs on Sat. Everything is progged to clear out on Sun with some fair wx clouds likely as the cold pool aloft passes thru. The post frontal high reaches PA Sun ngt. This should be close enough to allow for the winds to decouple and produce prime radiational cooling cond. As a result, the colder MEX was used for temps Sun ngt as opposed to the warmer model blends. Frost/freeze issues are possible if this unfolds as currently expected. Fair wx with a warming trend for the beginning of next week with an upr ridge building into the region. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Low pressure approaches today, moves overhead tonight, then lifts north of the region on Thursday. IFR or less through midnight. Light to moderate rain will continue today. Can not rule out some pockets of moderate rain this afternoon. Fog is expected to develop late this afternoon/evening and continue until the winds become westerly (mainly around 08-10Z) LIFR stratus and fog expected through the overnight. Conditions improve to VFR after 08Z-12Z. Easterly winds subside this afternoon, becoming light and variable for evening push. Winds become westerly late tonight/early Thursday morning (08-10Z). NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: High confidence IFR or less through midnight. Occasional gusts possible through 20Z. timing of fog development may be off by an hour or two. KLGA TAF Comments: High confidence IFR or less through midnight. Occasional gusts possible through 20Z. timing of fog development may be off by an hour or two. KEWR TAF Comments: High confidence IFR or less through midnight. Occasional gusts possible through 20Z. timing of fog development may be off by an hour or two. KTEB TAF Comments: High confidence IFR or less through midnight. Occasional gusts possible through 20Z. timing of fog development may be off by an hour or two. KHPN TAF Comments: High confidence IFR or less through midnight. Occasional gusts possible through 20Z. timing of fog development may be off by an hour or two. KISP TAF Comments: High confidence IFR or less through midnight. Occasional gusts possible through 20Z. timing of fog development may be off by an hour or two. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH Monday... .Thursday...VFR. .Friday...VFR. A chance of showers with areas of MVFR conditions. .Saturday/Sunday...VFR. W wind 10-15KT, G20-25KT. .Monday...VFR
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&& .MARINE...
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Winds are diminishing but rough ocean seas remain, and should last through at least Thu night. SCA extended to cover this. Meanwhile, marine dense fog advy issued for all waters for tonight as low pressure moves across and vsby lowers to less than 1 nm in most places. Cold fropa will shift winds to the W-NW and quickly scour out the fog late tonight into early thu morning. Low pres passing thru the region on Fri followed by a cold frontal passage on Sat will keep seas at sca lvls on the ocean. Elsewhere, winds and waves look to remain blw criteria. Winds and seas blw sca lvls all waters Sun-Tue with high pres building in from the w.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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Today`s rainfall has not been causing any hydrologic impact.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) remains off the air. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ338-355. Dense Fog Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ330-335-340-345-350-353. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/Goodman NEAR TERM...JMC/Goodman SHORT TERM...Goodman LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...BC MARINE...JMC/Goodman HYDROLOGY...JMC/Goodman EQUIPMENT...

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