Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KOKX 290009
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
809 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Coastal low pressure tracks up the Atlantic coast and passes east
late tonight and into Friday. A series of weak waves of low
pressure will track close to the area Saturday night into early
next week. A deepening area of low pressure will then track
across the Lower Great Lakes region Tuesday into Tuesday night,
becoming nearly stationary across the Northeast for the middle
of next week. The associated frontal system will impact the area
during this time.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A negatively-tilting upper trough along the eastern seaboard is
allowing for the back edge of the rain, just west of the Hudson
River, to edge slowly eastward. This will continue through the
night with the rain not expected to exit far eastern LI/SE CT
until the pre-dawn hours. Additional rainfall amounts of a few
hundredths along the back edge to several tenths out east can be
expected.

Northerly winds will pick up through the night as offshore low
pressure deepens, with gusts to around 25 mph developing.

Lows tonight will be in the middle to upper 30s for much of the
area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The coastal low continues to progress further northeast into
Southeast Canada with high pressure building in from the west into
Friday. This will allow for gradually clearing skies during the day
Friday. The tight pressure gradient over the area on Friday will
also allow for gusty NW winds to develop, possibly upwards of 30-35
mph, especially near the coast. Highs on Friday will be in the low to
middle 50s.

Gusty NW flow continues Friday night as weak high pressure continues
to move in from the west and the strengthening low pressure to the
northeast moves into Southeast Canada. Winds will begin to relax a
bit late in the night and into early Saturday. Lows will be in the
low to middle 30s for inland areas with temps near 40 for the NYC
metro.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A nearly zonal flow at the start of the period will allow for
multiple waves of low pressure to track close enough to the area
for chances of mainly light rain. The first of which will bring
in a low chance for rain late Saturday afternoon and night,
followed by weak high pressure on Sunday. Another wave passes to
the south Sunday night into Monday, with another shot of weak
warm advection rain. A cutoff low over the Great Basin then gets
kicked eastward out into the Northern/Central Plains Monday,
and then across the Great Lakes Monday night into Tuesday. This
will be associated with a deepening surface low that sends a
warm front toward the area Monday night into Tuesday, followed
by a cold frontal passage on Wednesday. There are differences in
the globals in the timing and evolution of the energy that
lifts out of the intermountain west, but there are commonalities
with an overrunning rain during this time. It also looks like
the area remains north of the warm front, but could come close
with marginal instability and perhaps some embedded convection
Tuesday night. It`s too early to be too specific with the
details. Digging jet energy across the Great Lakes on Wednesday
leads to a closed off upper low that tracks into the Northeast.
Cyclonic flow and the potential for secondary low formation in
the vicinity of New England would keep clouds and low chances of
precipitation into Thursday.

Temperatures will be several degrees above normal over the
weekend with daytime highs in the mid and upper 50s, with lows
in the upper 30s inland, and in the 40s at the coast. Unsettled
conditions and easterly flow to start the week will result in
cool, damp conditions with temperatures at or just below normal
for highs, but slightly above normal for lows due to cloud
cover.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure develops offshore and moves northeast during the
TAF period as weak high pressure builds in.

Rain will linger across most of the terminals this evening,
coming to and end from west to east starting around 06Z or
sooner for western terminals and towards daybreak for more
eastern terminals such as KGON.

MVFR conditions expected through around 06Z Friday as well,
also improving from west to east. Thereafter, VFR conditions
expected through the remainder of the TAF period. Vsby have
improved across the region and little restriction to vsby is
expected at this time.

NW Winds tonight into Friday at 10-15 kt this evening,
increasing to 15-20 kt overnight. Gusts also increase to near
20 kt early tonight then to 25 to around 30 kt late tonight and
continuing into Friday evening.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low chance of IFR through 06Z. Gusts to 20 kt could develop 1-2
hours earlier than forecast.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday Night: VFR. NW wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Saturday: Mainly VFR during the day. Chance of showers and MVFR at
night, possibly mixed with snow for KSWF. W wind gusts near 20 kt
day. Gusts diminish at night.

Sunday: Mainly VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into
early evening.

Monday: MVFR possible with a chance of showers.

Tuesday: Rain with MVFR or lower conditions. E wind gusts near 20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds increase tonight as a low pressure system approaches the area
from the south. Gusts will be 25-30kt over all waters tonight and
through much of the day Friday so a Small Craft Advisory is in
effect for all waters. While there may be an occasional gust to 35
kt on the ocean tonight, gusts will not be widespread enough to
warrant a gale warning.

Strong wind gusts of up to 30 kt will be possible for all waters
through Friday afternoon. Winds may increase a bit by Friday evening
such that near gale force gusts will be possible on the ocean zones.
A Gale Watch is in effect for 00Z Saturday through 10Z Saturday. All
other waters will see SCA conditions with gusts up to 30 kt.

SCA conditions will linger on the ocean waters into Saturday
behind departing low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes.
Elsewhere, brief SCA gusts are possible in the morning. Winds
and seas will gradually subside through the day with sub-SCA
conditions likely by evening. The next chance for a SCA will be
on Tuesday in a strengthening easterly flow.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the period.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ331-332-
     335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.
     Gale Watch from Friday evening through late Friday night for
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW/MW
NEAR TERM...MW/DW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...DW/MW
HYDROLOGY...DW/MW


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.