Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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972 FXUS61 KOKX 240146 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 946 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will dominate the weather through Saturday. A cold front pushes south of the area and remains nearly stationary through Memorial Day. Another cold front follows on Tuesday with high pressure building in behind. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Forecast on track this evening. Heights will continue rising tonight as ridging approaches and surface high pressure builds towards the region. Mostly clear skies and light winds will combine with temperatures falling into the 50s and lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface high pressure builds into the region on Thursday, then remains in place through Friday. Expect mostly sunny skies both Thursday and Friday, with mostly clear skies Thursday night. Temperatures on Thursday will climb into the 70s and lower 80s, temperatures on Friday will be warmer with highs in the upper 70s and 80s. The only exception will be right along the immediate coastline, where temperatures will hold in the lower 70s. Thursday night, lows fall into the 50s and lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Anchored high pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast will lead to a continued southwest flow ushering in a more humid airmass on Saturday. Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 80s under a mostly sunny sky. Temperatures in and around NYC may even hit the 90 degree mark. South facing shores of Long Island and CT will be about 5-10 degrees cooler due to the southerly flow off the water. Sunday becomes more complex as a cold front gets pushed to the south as northern stream high pressure moves into eastern Canada. The front may remain south of the area into Memorial Day which will keep an unsettled pattern in place. However, it should be noted there is still a large amount of uncertainty on whether the front retreats back into the area or remains to the south. The placement of the front will ultimately determine temperatures and the rain threat Sunday into Memorial Day. Have kept chance PoPs in the forecast through Monday afternoon. Easterly flow will keep clouds and cooler temperatures in the forecast with highs on Sunday and Monday only in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Another cold front is expected to swing through on Tuesday with Canadian high pressure following behind it. Temperatures return to near seasonable to a few degrees above. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure builds overnight and Thursday. VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with few clouds to contend with. Light W/NW winds are forecast overnight. NW winds Thursday morning will shift around to local seabreezes in the afternoon, except KSWF. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .Thursday night...VFR. .Friday...VFR. SW winds 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt through early evening. .Saturday...Mainly VFR. Low chances of showers and thunderstorms near NYC Metro terminals and to the N and W starting in the afternoon with possible MVFR. Higher chance of showers and thunderstorms at night. .Sunday-Monday...MVFR or lower at times with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise VFR.
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&& .MARINE... High pressure will build toward the waters today through Friday. With a weak pressure gradient across the forecast waters, winds and seas will remain below small craft advisory levels. The tranquil conditions on the area waters will continue through Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are expected through Friday. No hydrologic impacts are expected through Saturday. While there remains uncertainty for Sunday into early next week, there is potential for 1/2 inch of rainfall from Sunday through Tuesday morning. && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) is off the air for an extended period of time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CB/BC NEAR TERM...BC/DS SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...CB AVIATION...PW MARINE...CB/BC HYDROLOGY...CB/BC EQUIPMENT...

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