Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 211124 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 724 AM EDT Mon May 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds across the region today and moves off the southern New England coast tonight. A warm front will lift through Tuesday afternoon followed by a cold front late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. High pressure returns behind the frontal passage and remains through Saturday. Another frontal system impacts the area on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Ridging builds into the area today providing mostly sunny and warm weather. Light northerly winds will give way an afternoon seabreezes at the coast. Highs will generally range between mid and upper 70s, although a few 80 degree readings will be possible in metro NY/NJ. Humidity levels will be much lower than yesterday, making it more comfortable. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Upper ridge axis shifts to the east tonight as a shortwave trough over the Midwest approaches. Guidance is in good agreement that pcpn hold off until aft 12z Tue except perhaps in Orange county. Overrunning pattern strengthens as the day progresses and a warm front lifts into the area. Model soundings are indicating some weak elevated instability late Tue aftn through Tue eve, in addition to increasing PWATS (maxing out between 1.50 and 1.75 inches). Any tstms that develop have the potential to produce a period of moderate to heavy rainfall. Warm front should lift through the area during the aftn and early eve as parent low tracks through New England, followed by a cold front Tue night into Wed morning. High temps are tricky on Tue and will depend on timing of the warm fropa. High pres returns behind the cold front with dry weather and a return to above normal temps on Wed. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure builds across the area Wednesday night and remains through Saturday, resulting in dry weather with above normal temperatures. A frontal system is then forecast to impact the region Saturday night into Sunday. Highs on Sunday will be in the low to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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High pressure builds in from the Great Lakes into this evening, then moves off the NJ coast tonight. A warm front approaches from the southwest toward Tuesday morning as low pressure moves into the eastern Great Lakes. VFR through the TAF period. Showers will be approaching KSWF toward 12Z Tuesday. A light north flow this morning will become light and variable, before sea breezes develop late this morning into this afternoon at all terminals, except at KSWF, where a light WSW flow is forecast. Winds become light and variable this evening. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: A sea breeze may develop as early as 15Z. The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud. KLGA TAF Comments: A seas breeze may move through the terminal as early 17Z. The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud. KEWR TAF Comments: A sea breeze may move through as early as 17Z. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: A sea breeze may move through as early as 17Z. KHPN TAF Comments: A weak sea breeze may move through as early as 16Z. KISP TAF Comments: A seas breeze may move through the terminal as early 17Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .Tuesday morning...VFR. .Tuesday afternoon/night...MVFR in any showers, otherwise VFR. An isolated thunderstorm is also possible. S winds G15-20KT possible Tuesday afternoon. .Wednesday-Friday...VFR. NW-N winds G15-25KT possible Wednesday-Wednesday night.
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&& .MARINE... High pressure was building into the forecast waters from the west and a light northerly flow was across the waters. Ocean seas east of Fire Island Inlet have subsided to below 5 feet, so the SCA was cancelled. A weak surface pressure gradient force will continue into late in the week. The forecast waters will remain below SCA levels through Friday. With an increasing southwesterly flow Friday into Saturday, ocean seas may build to 5 feet or more late Friday night into Saturday. && .HYDROLOGY... Between 1/4 and 1/2 of basin avg QPF is expected with the frontal system Tue into Wed. Other than some isolated nuisance ponding with any heavy rain from tstms late Tue aftn/eve, no hydrologic impacts are expected through the week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$

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