Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 161652 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1252 PM EDT Wed May 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... The cold front south of the region will come to a halt with a series of lows traveling along it today through tonight. The front slightly moves farther south of Long Island Thursday. A frontal boundary will remain south of the region Thursday night through Friday night as a series of lows travel along the front. This front will return northward Saturday as a warm front. The front will remain nearby the region through the weekend. A cold front will move across the area early next week, followed by high pressure. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Made adjustments to the precipitation forecast based on current radar/satellite trends and newer 12Z model data. Rainfall will likely continue into tonight, necessitating an increase in PoPs. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. A cold front south of Long Island will come to a halt today with a low developing along it. The low moves eventually more northeast by late today and rain will return to the region. However, with a lack of instability, not expecting any thunderstorms today. The nature of the rain will be light to moderate and lasting for a longer period of time once it gets here. Heavy rainfall will occasionally be possible with layer precipitable water values near 1.5 inch. Temperatures will be warmest to start the day and then will slowly decrease with the rain moving in, as temperatures get closer to the dewpoint. Temperatures initially in the upper 50s to lower 60s will become widespread in the mid to upper 50s by the end of the day.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... The rain is expected to continue across the region tonight as waves of low pressure move along the cold front south of Long Island. Min temperatures are expected to not lower much compared to late day temperatures with values in the low to mid 50s on average. The front will move a little more south of the region Thursday which could allow with some drier air filtering in the mid levels and some more dry intervals during the day. This will make for a warmer day Thursday with highs forecast in the upper 60s to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Expect an unsettled weather pattern through much of the long term period. The main weather feature to start the long term period will be a stalled frontal boundary south of Long Island that will have a series of lows traveling along it. The front then lifts northward as a warm front sometime late Friday into Saturday then stalls once again just north of the region. Again, as this front sits north of the region, a series of lows will travel along this boundary. This front finally moves east as a cold front approaches early next week. High pressure finally returns for the middle of next week. As the front lifts north of the region late Friday into Saturday, the airmass will become more tropical in nature with dewpoints getting into the 60s for the weekend. In addition, precipitable water values are forecast to reach 1.5 to 2 inches Friday into the weekend. Heavy rain will be a possibility especially in any thunderstorms for the weekend. Will continue to mention at least a chance of thunder each afternoon and evening this weekend as surface CAPE increases each afternoon, especially north and west of NYC. There will be some chances for rain Thursday night through Monday with the best chance of rain on Friday and Saturday. High pressure builds into the region Tuesday and Wednesday with drier weather expected. Temperatures through most of the period will be above normal except for Friday. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A cold front stalls south of the terminals this morning and will remain in place through tonight. Conditions will continue to lower to MVFR through the early afternoon with -RA. Conditions should further deteriorate to IFR by late this afternoon and evening. -RA and IFR will persist through tonight and there is a small chance for LIFR. NE winds around 10 kt will diminish tonight. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Timing of lowering flight categories may be off by +/- 1-3 hours. The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud. KLGA TAF Comments: Timing of lowering flight categories may be off by +/- 1-3 hours. The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud. KEWR TAF Comments: Timing of lowering flight categories may be off by +/- 1-3 hours. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: Timing of lowering flight categories may be off by +/- 1-3 hours. KHPN TAF Comments: Timing of lowering flight categories may be off by +/- 1-3 hours. KISP TAF Comments: Timing of lowering flight categories may be off by +/- 1-3 hours. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .Thursday...Improvements to VFR possible. .Friday...IFR or lower with -RA likely. ENE gusts around 20kt possible. .Saturday...IFR or lower in rain and possible thunderstorms. .Sunday...MVFR or lower. Showers possible. && .MARINE... SUB-SCA conditions will prevail across the waters today through Thursday night. Seas then start to increase to 5 ft on the far eastern ocean waters on Friday. More widespread 5 ft seas can be expected on the ocean waters Friday night through Monday. && .HYDROLOGY... Rainfall amounts through Thursday are expected to be around 1 inch, however this rain will fall over a long period of time. If any heavier rain does occur, there will be a low chance of poor drainage and urban flooding. Period of heavy rain will be possible Friday through the weekend. There is still a lot of uncertainty on where the heaviest rainfall will fall and confidence remains low in this time period. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Some minor coastal flooding is possible for a few locations across the South Shore Bays and Western Long Island for high tide cycles tonight with the prolonged easterly flow and high astronomical cycles with new moon having recently occurred. && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) remains off the air. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/JM NEAR TERM...MD/JM SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...12/DS MARINE...BC/JM HYDROLOGY...BC/JM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... EQUIPMENT...

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