Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 171352 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 952 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will move slowly eastward this weekend while a series of cold fronts will pass through, one this evening and another Sunday night. High pressure will then build from the northwest on Monday. A series of low pressure centers will then pass to the south and east during mid week, followed by building high pressure late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Forecast on track this morning with no significant changes. A large scale area of deep low pressure will remain centered across eastern Canada, with a series of shortwave mid level troughs rotating around it and into/across New England. The first of these will send a moisture-starved cold front across this evening. Today will be mostly sunny day with highs in the 40s, but brisk W winds should keep wind chills mainly in the upper 20s inland and 30s elsewhere. Tonight should be rather cold as winds turn N and advect colder/drier air in this evening, then drop off late. Lows will be in the 20s in the NYC metro area and along most of the coastline, with teens inland, along the SE CT coast, and in the Long Island Pine Barrens.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Sunday will be mostly sunny and a few degrees colder than Sat, with highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s. The next shortwave passing to the north will be accompanied by a weak sfc low that looks to have more available low level moisture and lift, so expect some evening flurries north and east of NYC. Lows Sunday night do not look to be much different than those forecast for tonight. Sfc high pressure nosing down from central Canada after this weak low passes by will maintain the cold air in place, and high temps once again on Mon should be in the upper 30s/lower 40s. Increasing clouds ahead of approaching low pressure Mon night will keep temps from falling as much as previous nights, with lows in the 20s and lower 30s. Precip with the low should hold off until daytime Tue. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Complex pattern with model handling of western jet tracking across the southern states, and H5 shortwaves that track across the US toward the east coast during the mid week period. Analysis of latest global model runs actually agree on dry weather for the most part in the Tuesday-Thursday timeframe, with GFS suggesting initial low/shortwave and northern extent of associated precip shield clipping the area later Tuesday into Tuesday night. Next shortwave looks to dig further south across the SE states, resulting in the development of another low pressure off the SE coast that tracks well to the south and east late Wednesday into Thursday. Several GEFS members however remain wet at times through this mid week time frame. At this time, have maintained chance Pops, lowering slightly from previous forecast for predominately snow across our area. Temperatures looks quite chilly this week as cold canadian air remains entrenched across the northeast. Higher likelihood of dry weather returns Thursday night into Friday with Canadian high pressure slowly building in from the west. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure builds in from the west, and slides south of the terminals. VFR thru the period. WNW wind speeds and gusts increase through the morning. Expect gusts to 25-30 kt during the afternoon hours. A shift to the NW occurs 22Z-00Z as a weak front moves through. Winds diminish overnight. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .Sunday-Monday night...VFR. .Tuesday...VFR, possibly becoming MVFR or lower by the afternoon in snow, or wintry mix. Gusty E-NE flow develops, 15-25kt. .Tuesday night and Wednesday...Mainly VFR, but cannot rule out IFR in snow. Rain and snow possible along the coast Wednesday. Gusty NE wind 20-30kt. && .MARINE... Winds have diminished out east and so have replaced gale warnings with SCA into this evening, as W winds still gust to 25-30 kt. SCA remains in effect elsewhere through the day today, and except for the eastern sound and the bays of Long Island, wind gusts 25-30 kt look to be more near shore than widespread. Mainly quiet conds expected later tonight into Mon night, though a few wind gusts may approach 25 kt on the eastern ocean waters daytime Sunday. As high pressure remains NW of the area, just north of the Great Lakes region, and a series of low pressure centers pass southeast of the waters, the pressure gradient will tighten up Tuesday through Thursday. Expect NE winds, potentially gale force Tue night into Wednesday, to back to the north by Thursday, but remain gusty. Seas build Tuesday and remain rather rough through this time frame. && .HYDROLOGY... A low probability for significant precipitation exists Tuesday through Wednesday night depending on the eventual track of low pressure centers. If precipitation does indeed occur, it likely will be in the form of snow, so no hydrologic impacts are anticipated. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... There is the potential for a prolonged period of E-NE flow from Tuesday into Wednesday Night. Tidal departures of generally only 1 to 1 1/2 ft are needed for minor flooding for many locations during this time, and 2 to 3 ft for moderate. Depending on the exact track/strength of a coastal low or lows during this time frame, there is the potential for minor to moderate coastal flooding, but predictability on the details remains low. && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) is off the air for an extended period of time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ330- 335-338-340-345-353-355. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ350. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Goodman/PW NEAR TERM...BC/Goodman SHORT TERM...Goodman LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...19/PW MARINE...Goodman/JM/PW HYDROLOGY...Goodman/JM/PW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... EQUIPMENT... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.