258
FXUS66 KOTX 081001
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
301 AM PDT Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warming and drying trend is forecast through the weekend.
Temperatures on Friday through the weekend will warm to the
highest values of the season so far, with high temperatures
reaching the 80s into the lower 90s for much of the region. The
weather pattern for early next week is uncertain, however odds
favor a cooling trend with increasing clouds, and a small chance
of precipitation for the Cascade Crest, extreme northeast
Washington, and the northern half of the Idaho Panhandle.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Wednesday: The Inland Northwest is current between under two
distinct weather regimes early this morning as ridging shifts in
from the west and a large closed low remains nearly stationary over
the Plains. Drier air associated with the ridge will keep skies
clear over central Washington with temperatures warming into the mid
70s. Building high pressure will also result in breezy winds down
the Okanogan Valley into the western Columbia Basin this afternoon.
Meanwhile, for far eastern Washington and north Idaho, a weak wave
associated with the closed low moving in from the northeast will
keep skies overcast today with light precipitation across north
Idaho. Temperatures will also be notably cooler compared to central
Washington with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Thursday and Friday: Models are in good agreement for a quiet end to
the work week as the upper level ridge shifts further inland. Expect
plenty of sunshine with the warmest temperatures of the year so far.
Winds will be slightly breezy from the northeast Thursday afternoon
as a thermally induced surface trough builds along the Pacific
Northwest coast and enhances the northeast pressure gradient.
Temperatures will be in the low 70s to low 80s. The thermal trough
shifts east of the Cascades later Friday into Saturday, with
lighter winds and widespread temperatures in the upper 70s to
upper 80s. /vmt

Saturday and Sunday...Ensemble model agreement is very good that a
strong ridge will build over the Inland NW. This will result in
the warmest weekend so far this year across the Inland NW as 850
mb temperatures surges into mid to upper teens. This equates to
high temperatures in the 80s for most locations with lower 90s
possible over for some of the warmer locations. These values are
about 10-18F warmer than normal for this time of year. Despite
these lofty temperatures, we dont expect to break any records.
For the Spokane area we are forecasting highs in the lower 80s on
both Saturday and Sunday while the records are in the lower 90s
for both dates. So what are the chances of hitting 90F or greater
this weekend for other locations? On Saturday the chances for
Moses Lake, Wenatchee, and Omak range from 75-90%, and drop to
40-50% on Sunday. For the LC Valley, chances are around 20%.

Monday and Tuesday...this is where the model confidence begins to
slip as some solutions keep the ridge fixed over the area, while
others shift the ridge into central Montana or the Dakotas. About
40% of the ensembles support the persistent ridge and most of
these are comprised of Canadian Ensembles, however nearly a third
of the GFS and Euro solutions are give this scenario support. If
this were to happen, wed still be looking at a dry and warm
forecast, albeit not quite as warm as Sunday. If the majority
solution verifies, wed be looking at about a 10F or greater cool
down, thickening clouds, and a chance of showers, mainly near the
Cascades, and extreme NE WA and the northern half of the ID
Panhandle. The cool down would also be accompanied by breezy
westerly winds. Suffice it to say confidence for the forecast
early next week isnt high, however it will likely remain dry for
most locations no matter which ensemble scenario pans out. fx

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Winds will continue to gradually decrease into Wednesday
as low pressure continues to pull away from the area and high
pressure noses in. VFR conditions will continue across the region
through 06z Thursday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
Latest HREF guidance shows a 95% chance of CIGS remaining VFR at
KCOE Wednesday morning so the TEMPO group was removed with the 06z
TAF`s. There is high confidence in VFR conditions for all TAF
sites through 06z Thursday. JW

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https://www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        65  41  75  47  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  62  42  73  47  78  49 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        58  39  71  46  75  48 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       64  44  76  50  82  54 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       69  38  77  43  82  46 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      62  42  74  45  77  49 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        57  43  71  48  76  51 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     72  41  80  48  85  51 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      71  48  78  55  83  57 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           74  46  82  50  86  54 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$