Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --834 FXUS66 KOTX 082110 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 210 PM PDT Wed May 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A warming and drying trend is forecast through the weekend. Temperatures on Friday through the weekend will warm to the highest values of the season so far, with high temperatures reaching the 80s into the lower 90s for much of the region. The weather pattern for early next week is uncertain, however odds favor a cooling trend with increasing clouds, and a small chance of precipitation for the Cascade Crest, extreme northeast Washington, and the northern half of the Idaho Panhandle. && .DISCUSSION...-- Changed Discussion --Tonight through Sunday: Thicker high clouds across extreme eastern WA and north Idaho will continue to thin and dissipate through the evening hours. A ridge of high pressure is pushing into the Pac NW and will warm our temperatures through the weekend. Temperatures will peak Saturday across central WA in the mid to upper 80s. Probabilities of 90 degrees or warmer along the Highway 97 corridor from the Canadian border to around Wenatchee is 75-85%. As you move onto the western Columbia Basin the probabilities go down to 55-70%. Eastern WA and the ID Panhandle have very similar temperatures for Saturday and Sunday - in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Sunday may be a couple degrees warmer than what the NBM is suggesting as winds increase Sunday and we could see good mixing. The winds Sunday are a result of the ridge beginning to flatten and a potential wave moving into the region. West to southwest winds generally 10 to 15 mph with gusts 20 to 25 mph can be expected in the afternoon and evening hours. *Impacts: People not yet acclimated to these warm temperatures could experience issues outside in the heat this weekend. Also, river and lake temperatures remain cold...in the 40s to low 50s. Hypothermia and loss of muscle control can set in quickly when swimming in cold waters. Can`t argue it is going to be a beautiful weekend, but don`t want to hear of injury or worse from those not prepared. Monday through Wednesday: Uncertainty enters the forecast as to if the ridge retrogrades enough for a trough to slip into the NW from Canada. Either way a more flat pattern with cooler temperatures is forecast. Temperatures will be in the 70s, which is still 5 to 8 degrees above average for mid May. The current forecast is largely dry with just a 20% chance across the mountainous terrain of the Cascade crest and along the US/Canadian border. 15% of the ensembles show a wave for Wednesday, and by Thursday 50% of the ensembles are showing a trough over or approaching the area with an increased chance of precipitaiton. /Nisbet-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: High pressure is building into the region from the west, while a low pressure over the Great Plains is advecting high level clouds into eastern Washington and north Idaho from the east. Outside of the central Idaho Panhandle mountains, widespread VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. The thick high clouds across extreme eastern WA and north ID will continue through the afternoon and then begin to thin and dissipate through the overnight hours. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is high confidence for VFR conditions across all TAF sites. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https://www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...-- Changed Discussion --Spokane 42 74 47 79 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 42 73 46 77 49 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 39 71 46 75 48 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 44 78 50 83 53 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 38 76 43 82 46 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 42 73 44 77 49 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 44 71 48 76 52 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 41 80 48 85 51 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 48 78 55 83 57 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 45 81 50 86 53 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0-- End Changed Discussion --&& .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$