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000
FXUS66 KOTX 231140
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
440 AM PDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and dry weather returns with 60s and 70s for Tuesday and
Wednesday. A subtle cooling trend arrives late Wednesday into
Thursday with breezy winds and increasing chances for rains.
Unsettled weather continues late through the weekend and early
next week with better chances for precipitation across the
lowlands.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today: A ridge will dominate the region today as a closed upper-
level low moves onshore over northern British Columbia.
Consequently, today will see a temperature increase of 5 to 10
degrees compared to Monday, with highs ranging from the mid-60s to
low 70s.

Wednesday: A cold front associated with the British Columbia
low will sweep across the Pacific Northwest, keeping precipitation
concentrated in the Cascades due to zonal flow aloft. Models
indicate a warming trend for Wednesday as moisture from the
southwest intensifies, leading to another day of mid-60s to low
70s for highs. Breezy winds pose a very minor risk of blowing dust
and grass fires in the Waterville Plateau in the afternoon, where
wind gusts exceeding 30 mph have a 50% chance of occurrence.

Thursday through Thursday: Models suggest an active weather
pattern persisting through the weekend, with multiple systems
traversing the northwestern US. By Thursday afternoon, a surface
low will approach the Washington coast, increasing chances for
precipitation. Subsequent shortwaves will bring additional rounds
of precipitation on Friday and Saturday. There is a 30-70% chance
of a wetting rain (a tenth of an inch or more) in the eastern
third of WA and a 60-90% chance for the Panhandle through Saturday
morning. This will all be beneficial rains.

Model consensus is strengthening for unsettled weather to
continue into the following week as a large, occluded low nears
the northwest. Global ensembles are generating snowfall for the
Cascade passes but marginal air/road temperatures are working
against any significant accumulations. There is a 60% chance of 3
inches or more of snow for Stevens Pass Sunday afternoon through
Tuesday afternoon. /Butler

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
12z TAFS: Cirrus clouds will continue to invade from the west and
thicken through Tuesday afternoon. Winds this afternoon will
be light, but will become breezier on Wednesday from the
southwest with the passage of a dry cold front passage.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in
VFR conditions for all terminals throughout the taf period.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https://www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        66  40  66  41  61  44 /   0   0   0   0  10  40
Coeur d`Alene  65  39  64  40  58  43 /   0   0   0   0  10  50
Pullman        64  38  63  40  58  43 /   0   0   0   0  10  60
Lewiston       71  45  72  45  66  49 /   0   0   0   0  10  50
Colville       67  34  66  37  61  41 /   0   0   0   0  20  60
Sandpoint      64  38  63  41  56  43 /   0   0   0   0  20  60
Kellogg        64  42  63  43  54  45 /   0   0   0   0  30  50
Moses Lake     70  41  71  41  65  45 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Wenatchee      68  47  67  44  63  46 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Omak           68  42  69  42  65  46 /   0   0   0   0  10  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$