Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 201128
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
628 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
For the 12z TAFs:

We removed thunder at all TAF sites this morning. Instability has
mostly been overturned and any thunderstorms should be confined to
areas south and east of our TAF sites. Areas of rain remain but
will generally be light and are expected to decrease through the
morning. MVFR stratus will become increasingly common later this
morning. How far southeast and how persistent it will be is
somewhat in question, but the most likely areas for MVFR ceilings
are northern and western TAF sites. VFR conditions are expected to
return by around midday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 326 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Will continue to see area of showers and thunderstorms impact much
of the area this morning with a gradual decrease in activity
during the afternoon. Main impacts will be some localized areas of
heavy rainfall. Chance of severe weather looks to remain low.
Otherwise, rain, associated cloud cover and surface cold front
will keep temperatures quite a bit cooler for today. Most locales
will not make it out of the 70s today. Warmer temperatures will
return by the middle of the week.

Through much of the upcoming week will maintain weak mid-level
southwesterly flow that will bring several weak shortwaves through
the area. This will keep daily rain chances across parts of
Oklahoma and western north Texas. Although an isolated severe
storm may occur on any given day due to anticipated daytime
instability, do not expect widespread severe weather any day this
week.

By the end of the week into the early part of next weekend, models
indicate a bit of a pattern shift to a northwest flow regime, at
least for a short time. This looks to drag another cold front
south through the area Saturday, which may bring a drier, more
tranquil period of weather for the second half of the holiday
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75  62  82  65 /  70  20  20  10
Hobart OK         74  60  83  65 /  60  20  20  20
Wichita Falls TX  77  66  85  66 /  70  20  20  20
Gage OK           73  56  82  63 /  20  10  10  10
Ponca City OK     73  58  82  65 /  60  20  10  10
Durant OK         81  65  86  68 /  60  20  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/30



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