Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 160239 AAA
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
939 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

.UPDATE...
With clear skies and light winds, lows at or below freezing will
be possible again tonight into Monday morning across approximately
the NE half of the fa. Will not make any changes to the Freeze
Warning.

Overall the going forecast looks good so no changes were made.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 745 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
VFR conditions will persist through 162400. North winds will cease
gusting this evening and become light early Monday morning. South
winds will begin to gust before noon on Monday over western
Oklahoma.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 406 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018/

DISCUSSION...
After another freeze tonight in portions of the area, fire weather
will again be the primary focus. The freeze warning will be
continued with this package.

Warmer temperatures are expected Monday, especially in the west.
Increasing southwest winds and humidity down to about 10-15% in
the far southwest combined with the dry fuels give critical
values in the Red Flag Threat Index. Will issue a Red Flag Warning
for Beckham County down toward Knox and Baylor Counties. Areas
farther north and a little east will be borderline depending on
how low the humidity goes and how high the winds become, so will
issue a Fire Weather Watch from the northwest corner down to
Woodward, Weatherford, Hobart, Wichita Falls and Archer City.
Tuesday looks to be another potentially significant fire weather
day with temperatures climbing into the 90s, RH falling into the
single digits and winds of 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts. RFTI
grids shake out to extreme in much of the western portion of the
forecast area with some grids reaching "historically critical" in
portions of southwest Oklahoma and western sections of north
Texas. Red Flag conditions look likely so have will issue the Red
Flag Warning for Tuesday with this package.

A storm system later this week brings increasing precipitation
chances. Have not made any significant adjustments to the forecast
in this time period keeping POPs in the high chance category.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  32  70  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         33  78  55  94 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  36  80  56  92 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           31  76  54  93 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     24  65  48  87 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         35  71  53  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday for OKZ004>020-
     022>032-040-042-043-048.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ004>006-
     009>011-014>017-021>023-033>038-044.

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for OKZ004-009-010-014>016-022-035-037.

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Monday for OKZ021-033-034-
     036.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ083>089.

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for TXZ086-089.

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Monday for TXZ083>085-087-
     088.

&&

$$

25/09



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