Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
000
FXUS64 KOUN 290323
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1023 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Gusty afternoon winds may relax for a short period early this
evening before increasing again overnight. This will keep
temperatures much milder tonight as overnight lows only drop into
the upper 40s and lower 50s.
These strong low level winds will bring much warmer 850mb air
northward into the area tomorrow. This along with building mid-level
ridge will result in much warmer temperatures on Friday as the west
will be pushing 80 degrees. At the same time, low level moisture
will be on the increase with perhaps far northwest Oklahoma lagging
a bit as a dryline takes shape across the eastern Texas panhandle
into northwest Oklahoma. This will result in an area of elevated
fire weather where vegetation remains more dormant and available to
burn.
May see an area approach wind advisory criteria from late morning
into the afternoon across west central into northern Oklahoma and
would not be surprised to see some gusts to 40 mph. However with
abundant high clouds which may keep things just in check, plan to
hold off on any headlines at this point.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
A shortwave will move through the northern Plains on Friday into
Friday night. As this occurs an associated surface boundary will
drop south into the area, perhaps progressing as far south as I-44
during the day Saturday. This will aid in relaxing the surface
pressure gradient and diminishing wind speeds.
A thermal ridge along and south of the impinging surface boundary
will push temperatures Saturday afternoon into the low to middle 80s
along and south of the boundary, while to the north of the
boundary locations will see temperatures a few degrees cooler.
This boundary will lift back north of the area Saturday night with
dryline taking shape across western parts of Oklahoma southward into
west Texas. Still will watch minor shortwaves translating northeast
across the area Sunday afternoon in the subtropical jet for possible
convective initiation along the dryline. However, currently with
upper ridging remaining in place and substantial cap, chance of
storms, at least during the day Sunday, appears low. Precip chances
do increase Sunday night with rather deep waa developing across
Oklahoma into the mid-Mississippi valley in advance of approaching
long wave trough to our west.
Lead wave from the long wave trough ejects northeast out of northern
Mexico into the southern Plains Monday. As this occurs a surface low
develops across Kansas along frontal boundary, with a dryline
trailing south across western Oklahoma and western north Texas
Monday morning. The dryline is forecast to advance eastward rather
quickly during the day with Pacific front entering northwest
Oklahoma by late afternoon. Main question is where will the dryline
be located when convection develops. Models suggest the dryline will
be just west of I-35 by midday with an area in vicinity of dryline
becoming uncapped. Given the environment, any storm that does
develop would have a chance to become severe. Some elevated fire
weather may develop further west Monday afternoon as well.
This activity will quickly move east of the area Monday evening with
much colder air filtering south in the wake of yet another rather
strong spring cold front. So after a few days on 70s and 80s will
see temperatures fall back into the 50s across much of the area
Tuesday. Could also see some rain showers wrap back around into
northern Oklahoma on the back side of the system Friday.
This cool down will be short-lived as we begin another warming trend
mid-week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1021 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Gusty southerly winds will continue through tomorrow at 00z,
where they will begin to relax. A few wind gusts could get up to
40 mph. LLWS will affect all TAF sites from 06Z until 15Z. Mid
level clouds will begin to move into the area overnight and into
tomorrow.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 67 53 73 56 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 68 50 75 49 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 71 54 78 58 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 71 48 81 40 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 68 51 74 50 / 0 0 0 10
Durant OK 70 52 76 57 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...13