Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 190020 AAA
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
720 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

.UPDATE...
Thunderstorms that developed west of the fa late this
afternoon/early evening continue to move into western portions of
the fa. Have increased PoPs to cover this activity. Thunderstorms
expected to continue to move east across portions of the fa the
rest of this evening. Some strong to severe storms possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 704 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
Thunderstorms will move through northwestern then north central
and central Oklahoma this evening before dissipating overnight.
VFR conditions are expected to exist outside of thunderstorms.
Gusty south winds will persist Saturday with the approach of a
weak cold front to northwestern Oklahoma around 192400.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018/

DISCUSSION...
High-resolution models show a consistent signal of storm
development across the panhandles late this afternoon and this
evening which should move east/northeast into the area with the
highest chances across northwest Oklahoma associated with the
enhanced risk of severe storms. But even now we have had
early development east of Lubbock that may also affect our
southwestern areas. We will have the potential for severe storms
this evening with hail and wind potential with the initial
discrete development, evolving more into a wind event as the
storms develop into a line of complex through mid evening. Severe
weather potential will likely decrease later tonight. We can see
some lingering pops tomorrow morning, but then additional
potential of storm development along and ahead of the cold front
that will move through the area tomorrow night. There is severe
potential with these storms as well, especially as storms become
more widespread in the evening. The front will bring cooler
weather for early next week, but only a brief lull from storm
chances as the area will remain under a general southwest flow
aloft into next week with various shortwaves bringing storm
chances, although the specific timing is always a question mark.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  70  90  64  78 /  30  10  50  40
Hobart OK         69  92  63  77 /  60  20  50  50
Wichita Falls TX  70  92  67  82 /  20  10  50  50
Gage OK           63  86  54  74 /  80  20  50  20
Ponca City OK     70  93  62  78 /  40  20  50  20
Durant OK         70  90  69  85 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25/09


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