Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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951
FXUS64 KOUN 232331
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
631 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

.DISCUSSION...
The 00Z aviation discussion follows....

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered TSRA will likely persist until around 09Z in/near the
northwest corner of Oklahoma. Most other convection is more
likely to die out before 03Z. With little change in the overall
pattern and moisture configuration, we should generally see
similar conditions tonight/tomorrow as we saw last night/today.
There is some signal in the models for fog early Thursday in
southeast Kansas and north-central/northeast Oklahoma. This does
not appear to be fully consistent with the other weather
conditions forecast by the same models, so we will omit any
significant restrictions to visibility at KPNC for now.

CmS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 407 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers/storms have developed this afternoon and may
persist across southeast Oklahoma until sunset. Additional
showers/storms may approach western Oklahoma/adjacent parts of
north Texas from the High Plains late this evening or tonight.
Severe weather is not expected.

For Thursday afternoon, an elongated area of mid-level vorticity
will continue to be a focus for diurnal thunderstorms across the
eastern half of Oklahoma. Mid-level temperatures are expected to
be cooler in this area (~6-7C).

By Friday afternoon, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast pass
by the Central Plains. Ascent from this wave is forecast to lift
the capping layer, which will reduce convective inhibition. In
addition, there are some indications that an outflow boundary
and/or a remnant MCV from convection may move into northern
Oklahoma. Consequently, isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to develop across north central
Oklahoma.

The mid-level weakness across eastern Oklahoma is expected to
move eastward. Therefore, coverage across eastern/southeastern
Oklahoma is expected to be less on Friday afternoon.

Forecast soundings across northern Oklahoma indicate large
downdraft CAPE (>1500 J/kg) and steep low-level lapse rates in the
subcloud layer, so damaging wind gusts from downbursts will be
possible. Large hail will also be possible with large/wide CAPE in
the hail-growth zone.

For Sunday and Monday, isolated thunderstorms may affect
northwestern Oklahoma within an area of stronger mid-level flow.

The extended forecast will be modulated by the location of the
mid-level ridge. Overall, it appears that low rain chances will
persist across northern, western, and southeastern Oklahoma (on
the periphery of the ridge) with most locations remaining hot and
dry.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  89  69  91 /  10  20  20  10
Hobart OK         68  90  69  96 /  20  20  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  68  91  70  95 /  20  10  10  10
Gage OK           66  91  68  97 /  40  20  20  10
Ponca City OK     67  89  70  91 /  20  30  30  20
Durant OK         68  89  70  91 /  30  30  30  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

11/23/23



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