Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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758
FXUS64 KOUN 240931
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
431 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level low over southeastern Montana will slowly migrate
southeast through the Plains today through Wednesday night before
moving to our east through eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas. A cold
front will move into the area this afternoon ahead of this system
and through the area tonight and Wednesday morning. While this
front moves closer, we also see a surface cyclone deepening across
southeast New Mexico. A weak surface trough extends from the
surface low east and southeast across Texas. The result of this
will be a continued southeast to east surface flow across
Oklahoma and the best low-level moisture advection pointed toward
northwest Texas. Enough instability develop across northwest Texas
to support the marginal risk of severe storms in our far
southwestern zones this afternoon and evening, but the surface
boundary across Texas and the backed flow north of this boundary
should keep the highest instability confined to the southwest
portion of our forecast area. For the rest of the area, better
chances of precipitation will be later this evening, overnight and
into Wednesday as the upper low approaches and areal coverage of
the precipitation should be pretty high ahead of this system.
Another wave in the northwest flow approaches Thursday and
Thursday night bringing another front and some POPs into the
area, although precipitation will likely not be as widespread.

A larger scale storm system develops over the western United
States this weekend and moisture advection ahead of this system
will provide some precipitation chances next Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  76  52  57  44 /  10  60  80  20
Hobart OK         77  49  60  41 /  20  70  80  10
Wichita Falls TX  80  54  61  43 /  10  60  70  10
Gage OK           69  43  61  40 /  20  80  50  10
Ponca City OK     75  50  59  43 /  10  70  70  20
Durant OK         78  57  63  47 /   0  50  70  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$



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