Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 140952
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
452 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...
Very strong, gusty norhwest winds will continue through the day
today. Gusts to near 45kts will be possible across western
Oklahoma, with 35 to 40kts possible elsewhere. Expect mainly VFR
conditions, but a period of MVFR ceilings may occur across
northern Oklahoama this morning. Wind will gradually diminish this
evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 253 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Main concerns continue to be centered around critical fire weather
conditions today and into early this upcoming week as well as
strong winds today.

Cold front has swept across the area overnight with much cooler
temperatures in its wake. It will also allow somewhat higher RH
values across the area today, at least compared to the last couple
of days. Could still see some areas of southwest Oklahoma and
western north Texas dropping into the 15 to 20 percent range this
afternoon. The most impactful aspect will be the winds. Will
likely need to expand the Wind Advisory for a larger area for
today. Parts of northwest Oklahoma may approach High Wind Warning
criteria, but for now will keep wind speeds just below the
threshold, but this will need to be watched closely today. The
combination of colder temperatures and winds will also result in
wind chills in the teens and 20s this morning.

Even with the cooler temperatures and higher RH values, will go
ahead and upgrade Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warnings and
will add a few counties of southwest Oklahoma into western north
Texas due to extreme wind speeds, ERC values near 95 percentile
across western zones and ongoing wildfires.

Wind should finally relax some Saturday night into early Sunday
as cool surface high settles south through the plains. This will
result in freezing temperatures across much of the area Sunday
morning. Will continue with a Freeze Watch for this time frame and
will add the remainder of western north Texas to the watch. A bit
warmer on Sunday, but still well below normal.

South winds return by Monday and will become quite breezy across
the west. This will result in elevated fire weather conditions
Monday. Critical fire conditions expected by Tuesday as strong
gusty winds, very warm temperatures and low humidity return to the
area.

Another storm storm system is currently forecast to approach the
area by the end of the week with a chance of rain and
thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  50  29  57  34 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         54  27  65  36 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  57  30  64  38 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           46  27  63  35 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     47  26  53  27 /  10  10   0   0
Durant OK         54  33  59  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for
     OKZ004>048-050>052.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>019-021>025-
     027>029-033>041-044>046-050.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for OKZ004-009-010-014>016-021-022-033>038-044.

     Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for OKZ004-005-009-
     010.

TX...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for
     TXZ083>090.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

06/30/30



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