Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 162357
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
657 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

.DISCUSSION...
The April 17-18, 2018 00 UTC TAF discussion follows:

&&

.AVIATION...
Unrestricted ceilings and visibilities are expected to continue
through the TAF period.

Southerly winds are expected to continue through tonight. An
intense, 50 to 60 knot low-level jet will result in low-level wind
shear (LLWS) after midnight. Winds will veer toward the south-south
west or southwest and become quite gusty after sunrise tomorrow
morning.

There is an outside chance that smoke from any wildfires could
impact a terminal tomorrow afternoon, which would reduce
visibilities. The greatest probability for wildfires will be
across western Oklahoma and adjacent parts of north Texas.

Mahale

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 346 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Focus again over the next couple of days will be fire weather
concerns. It will be hot, windy and dry tomorrow across western
sections of the area. Agree with the NAM and ECMWF in bringing
very low dewpoints into western Oklahoma, although they disagree
on if the primary axis of dry air will move into northwest or
southwest portion of the area. Have used a blend of NAM/ECMWF
dewpoints in the grids as they have been doing much better in
these situations, and with this blend, have brought the low
dewpoints through most of the western sections of the area,
although there still may be even lower dewpoints moving somewhere
into the area tomorrow afternoon. Also have used CONSMOS (a
consensus of MOS guidance) for winds tomorrow which again often
does better with higher winds in these situations too. These give
us historically critical values of RFTI across portions of the
southwest, mainly Harmon, Greer, Jackson, Hardeman, Foard and Knox
Counties, and extreme values generally west of a Cherokee to
Weatherford to Meers OK to Electra TX to Seymour. Given how far
east the dryline is expected to move by the afternoon, the current
Red Flag Warning still looks good.

A cold front will move through Tuesday night bringing a wind shift
to complicate fire fighting efforts, but also cooler air for mid
week. RH will still be low on Wednesday but the cooler weather and
moderate winds will keep fire weather conditions in the "elevated"
category on Wednesday.

Later in the week, a stronger storm system moves toward the
central and southern Plains bringing the potential for widespread
precipitation Friday into Saturday, and at the moment looks like
the best odds of precipitation in western Oklahoma we`ve seen in a
long time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  54  84  50  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         56  92  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  57  89  53  76 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           53  93  44  71 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     49  84  46  72 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         54  81  56  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Tuesday to midnight CDT Tuesday
     night for OKZ004>006-009>011-014>017-021>023-033>038-044.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ021-033-034-
     036.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Tuesday to midnight CDT Tuesday
     night for TXZ083>089.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>085-087-
     088.

&&

$$

09/10/10


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