Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 160801
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
301 AM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Fire weather main concern the next couple of days with a shift to
rain/thunderstorm chances by the end of the week.

South winds return today, which will gradually increase through
the afternoon, especially across western Oklahoma and western
north Texas. This along with much warmer temperatures and a dry
airmass that remains in place across the area will result in near
critical to critical fire weather conditions across parts of
western Oklahoma and western north Texas. Think current Red Flag
Warning outlines main area of concern for late today and will not
make any changes other than to cancel the area under a Fire
Weather Watch.

Todays weather along with rather poor expected overnight recovery
will set the stage for another rather high end fire weather period
Tuesday. Very warm/hot temperatures along with afternoon humidity
dropping to between 5 and 10 percent and gusty southwest winds
will result in dangerous conditions across much of the western
third of Oklahoma and western north Texas. Current configuration
of Red Flag Warning for Tuesday still appears to cover area of
main concern. However, may look at extending the warning farther
in time through much of Tuesday evening as conditions will be slow
to improve. Also anticipate a cold front and associated wind shift
will move across the area Tuesday evening.

Somewhat more tranquil weather expected during the middle of the
week before large storm system approaches the southern Plains by
Friday. Still appears that rain and thunderstorms will be a good
bet across the entire area with some much needed rainfall (1 to 2
inches), especially across the western part of the state and
western north Texas. Models still have limited instability, but
strong wind fields, which may lead to a few strong to severe
storms by Friday night and Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  70  55  84  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         77  55  92  50 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  79  55  89  54 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           75  54  91  46 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     64  47  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         70  52  81  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for OKZ004>020-
     022>032-040-042-043-048.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Tuesday to midnight CDT Tuesday
     night for OKZ004>006-009>011-014>017-021>023-033>038-044.

     Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ021-033-034-036.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Tuesday to midnight CDT Tuesday
     night for TXZ083>089.

     Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ083>085-087-088.

&&

$$

06/30



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