Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 190826
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
326 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Main concerns are with evolution of convection and severe weather
today and continued chances of rain/thunderstorms through the
upcoming week.

Showers and thunderstorms across northern Oklahoma early this
morning will likely continue, mainly to our north across Kansas.
However some activity may linger near the Oklahoma Kansas border.
Outside this area, a few showers and even an isolated storm can
not be ruled out this morning, however expect much of the area to
remain dry into at least the mid- afternoon hours with warm and
breezy conditions.

Differences in several of the CAMS and other models in convective
initiation (timing/location) make for a challenging forecast for
today. Current thought is that we will see convection continue
through much of the day across Kansas along and north of what will
be the effective surface boundary. This boundary may remain across
northern and possibly into portions of western Oklahoma through
much of the day. Several models then develop scattered storms
along this boundary as early as 3 or 4 pm this afternoon, some of
which would likely be severe with hail, strong wind gusts as well
as heavy rainfall.

Meanwhile, farther south and west, a dryline will be in place
across the central/eastern Texas panhandle. Expect to see
scattered thunderstorms develop along this boundary as well by
late afternoon, which will then move into western/southwestern
Oklahoma and western north Texas. Higher amounts of instability
and the possibility of these storms remaining more discrete for a
longer period of time will allow these storms to pose more of a
large hail and wind threat compared to storms farther north across
northern Oklahoma.

The storms will become more widespread through the evening across
northern and western Oklahoma and will pose a risk of heavy and
potentially localized flooding rainfall. This complex of storms
should become more progressive during the evening as cold pool
strengthens, limiting heavy rainfall as it moves southeast across
the area overnight.

Models are more aggressive with pushing the effective front south
through the area into the day on Sunday with cooler temperatures
for the second half of the weekend and into early in the week.

Rain/thunderstorm chances continue through the upcoming week as
weak/modest southwest flow continues with embedded shortwaves.
With expected instability would support some severe storms just
about any day, but widespread severe weather is not anticipated.
Above normal temperatures also return by the second half of the
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  89  62  77  63 /  10  60  40  30
Hobart OK         90  60  77  63 /  20  60  30  30
Wichita Falls TX  92  65  79  65 /  10  70  50  30
Gage OK           87  53  76  59 /  30  60  20  30
Ponca City OK     91  59  77  60 /  20  60  20  20
Durant OK         89  68  84  67 /  10  30  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/30


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