Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 181724
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
For the 18z TAFs:

Gusty northerly winds will begin to subside later this afternoon.
Light northerly winds are expected from early-mid evening onward.
Aside from some high cirrus clouds across southern and eventually
western portions of the area, no clouds are expected and VFR
conditions will prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1153 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018/

..Update...

DISCUSSION...
Minor late morning update to keep winds slightly stronger through
the afternoon based on latest short term model guidance trends and
observations. There is the potential for gusts over 40 mph
continuing through at least mid-afternoon, especially across
north-central Oklahoma. We extended the wind advisory to account
for this.

BRB

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 404 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Several wind gusts over 55 mph occurred behind a cold front late
yesterday and early this morning.  Overall, most gusts are under
40 mph currently, with occasional gusts of 45 mph plus. It will
remain rather windy for the first half of the day, with a decrease
in sustained winds and gusts during the afternoon. North central
Oklahoma by mid afternoon, should have the strongest winds.

Decent RH recovery is finally occurring behind the front, but
rather low relative humidity values are expected during the
afternoon across at least the western third/half of
Oklahoma/northern Texas. ERC values (fuels) are at or above the
90-95th percentile, generally along and west of Highway 81 in
Oklahoma and west of a Vernon to Seymour line in Texas. Although
the wind may be marginal during the mid to late afternoon, a Red
Flag Warning will be issued where fuels are more receptive and the
wind will remain stronger this afternoon.

Light winds are expected tonight, which will result in a shallow
surface inversion during the evening and overnight. Therefore,
more smoke will be trapped closer to the ground with ongoing fires
in western Oklahoma.

Rather cool/cold temperatures are expected by Thursday morning,.DISCUSSION...

with near freezing temperatures possible across north central
Oklahoma. This may also result in areas of frost.

The wind is expected to remain fairly light on Thursday, then
increase on Friday, as a strong system approaches from the west.
Although the wind will be stronger Friday, an increase in near
surface moisture is expected to keep afternoon humidity at or
above 35 percent.

Rain with embedded storms should develop to our west on Friday
and move into western Oklahoma and western north Texas late Friday
afternoon and night. The precipitation will spread to the east
Friday night into Saturday. At this time, it appears that most of
the area should receive one to perhaps two inches of rain, before
the system moves east late Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  70  38  66  43 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         72  38  70  43 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  74  40  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           69  36  68  43 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     68  32  64  40 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         74  42  68  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>024-033>036.

     Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>006-
     009>011-014>017-021-022-033>037.

TX...None.
&&

$$

12/23/12



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