Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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289 FXUS64 KOUN 281749 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1249 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON... Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Though chances remain low at this time, we are watching for the potential of thunderstorm development this afternoon for areas generally south of I-40 and east of I-35 from 1 PM through 6 PM. The primary upper low pressure system that brought last night`s severe weather still remains to our northwest (centered over southwest Nebraska) with small vorticity lobes currently in the vicinity of central Oklahoma and eastern New Mexico/TX panhandle. This could provide sufficient dynamic ascent within this area this afternoon for storm development, should the atmosphere be able to recover from last night. There is a trend of some atmospheric recovery to our south, and given the 12Z model output, there is some concern that storm development could impact teams that are currently assisting with search and rescue and post- event clean up. Guidance indicates moderate instability is possible with plenty of 0-6 bulk shear which could mainly lead to large hail and damaging wind gusts. Again, confidence in severe development in this area is very low. hHowever, the environment may be there if recovery can be achieved. Thompson && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 153 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 MCS and lingering line of storms will continue to affect portions of southeast Oklahoma today. This will include a severe and flooding risk to go along with it. Most of the activity should shift east of the area during the afternoon hours. Will keep a portion of the flood watch for this area into the afternoon hours and will drop counties farther west from the watch. The remainder of the area will get a respite after a long day and night of severe weather. Otherwise, lighter winds, mild temperatures and clearing skies will make for a more tranquil day today across much of western and central sections of the area. Slightly drier air, clear skies and lighter winds will allow temperatures tonight to drop into the 40s and 50s across much of the area. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 153 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Quiet weather expected Monday in the wake of the weekend storm system. South winds return in earnest by Tuesday as surface pressure gradient tightens in response to shortwave trough moving through the northern Plains. The lower level winds will be veered bringing in much warmer air from the west with temperatures climbing to 80s and low/mid 90s. Southwest flow returns by midweek and a southern stream trough may bring an increasing chance of storms. Sufficient instability will be present for a few severe storms to be possible. A strong cold front still appears on track to move through late Thursday into Friday which should bring a cooler, drier airmass into the area for at least the first part of next weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Rain has moved east of most of our sites, outside of KDUA, but IFR ceilings will remain at several of our central and southern sites through mid morning. Clearing is then expected with VFR conditions and relatively light winds through the rest of the day and tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 79 54 80 61 / 20 0 10 0 Hobart OK 79 51 82 60 / 0 0 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 81 55 83 63 / 10 0 0 0 Gage OK 76 45 82 57 / 10 0 10 0 Ponca City OK 79 48 78 57 / 40 0 0 10 Durant OK 78 60 82 60 / 90 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...08