Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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135
FXUS64 KOUN 182053
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
353 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

.DISCUSSION...
After a cool night tonight, there will be a short warming trend
into Friday, as low pressure develops to our west, and southerly
winds return. This will also bring an increase in moisture so that
when the next storm system arrives late Friday through the
weekend, there should be sufficient moisture for significant
rainfall across most of our forecast area.

As the storm center is expected to pass mainly south of the Red
River, instability will be quite limited across our forecast area,
especially in the north. This will restrict thunderstorm chances
primarily to southern Oklahoma and north Texas through the period,
although a few stray storms will be possible to the Kansas border.
Rainfall does look like it will be substantial in general (as
always with convective rainfall, even in the absence of
thunderstorms, amounts will vary a lot over relatively short
horizontal distances), averaging between 1 and 2 inches over most
of our counties for the entire event.

The storm system will begin to clear our forecast area Saturday
night, and rain chances will diminish a lot for Sunday, mainly
remaining over the eastern 1/3 or so of Oklahoma. The GFS is
faster than other medium-range models in taking the storm system
east, so the slightly higher rain chances suggested by the
ECMWF/Canadian models (for Saturday night into Sunday) were
preferred here.

The next weather system of significance will arrive around the
middle of next week. Cutoff lows` positions are notoriously
difficult to forecast a week in advance, and this is no exception,
as different models and different ensemble members of the same
model have it all over the place by midweek.

CmS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  40  66  42  67 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         38  70  42  66 /   0   0   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  42  71  44  69 /   0   0   0  10
Gage OK           35  67  41  63 /   0   0   0  30
Ponca City OK     36  64  41  67 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         43  68  44  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>024-033>036.

     Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>006-
     009>011-014>017-021-022-033>037.

TX...None.
&&

$$

12/23



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