Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 220824
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
324 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Water vapor imagery shows a compact upper low across the Red River
Valley early this morning. The band of WAA that triggered
yesterday`s rain event has migrated east of our area, leaving behind
a lone axis of modest wraparound showers along the I-44 corridor
near and southwest of OKC. These showers have tapered off in the
last hour, though light rain is possible east/southeast of the OKC
metro as the low moves eastward this morning. Areas of fog have been
noted in an axis encompassing north central, west central, and south
central Oklahoma as well as light easterly winds add an upslope
component to a rather moist boundary layer. This fog will likely
begin to mechanically mix out by midmorning as surface winds shift
to northerly and increase in magnitude.

As the upper low trundles away, a cold front that is currently near
I-70 in Colorado/Kansas will push southward into the area later
today. The front will be denoted by a transition zone from light
northerly winds at or below 10 knots to the south, and stronger
northerly winds potentially gusting up to 25 knots to the north.
This front will reach the central part of our CWA by late afternoon
and the Red River by sunset, by which point frontolysis will be
occurring. Along and south of this cold front, lingering moisture
and stratus will keep highs in the upper 60s to low 70s, while the
front will keep highs in the mid-to-upper 60s in our northern zones.
Some potential exists for showers and maybe some storms to develop
along the front in central Oklahoma this evening, where an uncapped
and weakly unstable environment will exist with MLCAPE of about 800
J/kg. These storms would have a tendency to be rapidly undercut and
short-lived, with no severe hazards expected.

Skies will clear tonight in the postfrontal airmass. Given the much
lower boundary layer moisture content, lows will bottom out near
freezing north of I-40 and in the mid-to-upper 30s north of I-40.

Meister


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

The primary potential for impactful weather in the long range will
be on Sunday, as a dynamic mid-latitude cyclone will bring the risk
for fire weather, high winds, and severe weather.

Prior to that, expect a mostly sunny Saturday afternoon (except
perhaps for western north Texas, where winds may shift to
northeasterly and create some upslope stratus). Temperatures will be
cooler as winds remain northerly to start the day, then veer around
to southerly in the afternoon as the lee trough begins to deepen.
Today`s cold front will not be a Gulf scourer, so upper-40s
dewpoints will return back to the Red River region by late tomorrow
evening. That will keep lows much closer to 50 tomorrow night.

On Sunday, a compact upper wave associated with a negatively tilted
90-knot jet streak will impinge upon the southern and central
Plains. This, predictably, will cause intense cyclogenesis across
Kansas, with ensemble guidance showing the low approaching 980 mb by
late afternoon. The sensible impacts can be grouped into three
categories:

High winds: Given the fact that the pressure gradient from one side
of the CWA to the other will be around 16-20 mb on Sunday, very
strong southerly winds are expected across the warm sector beginning
Saturday morning. Even if cloud cover remains, the pressure gradient
alone should be enough to generate sustained winds approaching 30
knots in western Oklahoma. Gusts should peak around 50 knots (EPS
ensemble probabilities show about a 50 percent chance of exceedance
of 50 knot gusts in western Oklahoma) - thus, a high wind watch has
been issued as high-end wind advisory to high wind warning
conditions are expected.

Fire weather: As the low begins to eject eastward, it will drag the
dryline/Pacific front eastward from the Panhandles into western
Oklahoma and western north Texas. Some uncertainty exists regarding
the progressiveness of the dryline - it may plausibly reach our
western counties anywhere between about 19Z and 23Z. Behind the
dryline, strong westerly winds along the cyclone`s dry slot (and
perhaps enhanced by a pseudo-sting-jet) will rapidly dry the
boundary layer to relative humidities between 10 and 25 percent.
Given this and the powerful winds, it is little wonder that critical
fire conditions can be expected behind the dryline. Conditions will
closely be monitored in following forecast cycles to see at what
point the dryline will impinge on our area, and how much overlap
between potential critical fire weather and more-receptive fuels may
be.

Severe weather: Despite the paucity of rich Gulf moisture returning
northward east of the dryline, convection initiation seems probable
Sunday afternoon in part due to the extremely cold temperatures
aloft. Shear profiles within the warm sector will strongly favor
discrete supercells in the afternoon, though the degree of forcing
will likely lead to upscale growth of any storms that are able to
survive past sunset. Given 90 knots of cloud-layer shear and very
cold mid-level temperatures, large hail is the primary concern,
though it would not take much of an uptrend in low-level theta-E for
either a supercellular or QLCS tornado threat to materialize.

The dryline`s passage through the area will be followed by another
cold front early Monday morning. This will usher in a cooler and
drier couple of days, with highs beginning to warm back up into the
Wednesday-to-Thursday timeframe.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 856 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Rain will very slowly move east across the southern two-thirds of
Oklahoma through Friday morning. Thunderstorms will occur closer
to the upper low pressure over the southern third and south of the
Red River. MVFR and IFR conditions are expected to slowly improve
through the day Friday. A cold front will bring gusty north winds
to northern Oklahoma mid-morning and the rest of the state by
evening

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  67  37  63  52 /  20  10   0   0
Hobart OK         71  35  64  51 /   0   0   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  72  40  66  55 /  10  10   0   0
Gage OK           67  30  64  49 /   0   0   0  10
Ponca City OK     67  32  60  49 /  10   0   0  20
Durant OK         67  42  68  51 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night
     for OKZ004>006-009>011-014>018-021>024-033>035.

TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...09


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