Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FNUS74 KOUN 202050
FWSOUN

Spot Forecast for Rhea...Oklahoma Forest Service
National Weather Service Norman OK
350 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Forecast is based on request time of 1800 CDT on April 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (405) 325-3816 if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Initial broken line of showers and weak storms expected to impact
site between 530 pm and 6 pm. This round of rain will likely scattered
in nature and not very heavy, as some portions of the burn site may not
receive any rain. More widespread rainfall will come over western Oklahoma
toward and after midnight. Rainfall amounts still do not look excessive
with the averages between 0.30" and 0.50". Higher amounts of rainfall
are possible over eastern parts of the burn site where around 1.0" is
possible before rain chances end late Saturday night. No organized
severe storms are forecast, but brief and strong wind gusts along with
cloud to ground lightning threats will exist.

Inversion conditions Saturday morning, no significant surface-based
inversion is expected although dispersion will be complicated by
rain/thunderstorm outflow.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). A chance of showers
                    early in the evening. A slight chance of
                    thunderstorms. Showers in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 46.
Max humidity........98 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 7 to 16 mph with gusts to around 21
                    mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......3200-3300 ft AGL, decreasing to 500-1700 ft AGL
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....East 7 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good to excellent (41200-104400 knot-ft),
                    decreasing to poor to good (11900-47400
                    knot-ft) in the late evening and overnight.
Mixing height.......3200-3300 ft AGL, decreasing to 500-1700 ft AGL
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....East 7 to 16 mph.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........88     96     98     98     100    100
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ISOLTD S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Temp............63     60     55     52     50     48
RH..............36     48     66     76     83     92
20 ft wind......SE 14  SE 14  SE 9   SE 9   SE 12  E 13
20 ft wind gust.17     19     17     18     19     21
Mix hgt (ft)....3200   3300   500    1200   1500   1700
Transport wind..SE 30  SE 29  SE 18  SE 16  SE 21  SE 21
VRate ktft/1000.104    74     47     30     25     28

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). A slight chance of
                    thunderstorms early in the morning. Showers in
                    the morning, then a chance of showers in the
                    afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 54.
Min humidity........82 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 8 to 13 mph with gusts to
                    around 19 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms early in the morning.
Mixing height.......1300-1600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 8 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair to good (21100-32000 knot-ft).
Mixing height.......1300-1600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 8 to 13 mph.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........100    100    100    100    100    97
Weather cov.....DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC
Temp............47     47     48     50     51     51
RH..............95     96     92     86     84     87
20 ft wind......E 13   E 12   E 10   E 9    E 9    NE 9
20 ft wind gust.19     18     16     13     11     11
Mix hgt (ft)....1600   1400   1400   1400   1500   1600
Transport wind..SE 22  SE 22  E 21   E 20   E 18   NE 17
VRate ktft/1000.32     31     30     29     28     27

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). A chance of showers in
                    the evening.
Min temperature.....Around 42.
Max humidity........95 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 8 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......1200-1500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 8 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair to good (13100-31000 knot-ft).
Mixing height.......1200-1500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 8 to 12 mph.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky (%).........97        97        95        94
Weather cov.....CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............52        49        47        46
RH..............84        88        93        94
20 FT wind......NE 9G12   N 10G14   N 10G16   N 12G16
Mix hgt (ft)....1500      1400      1300      1500
Transport wind..NE 16     N 21      N 23      N 24
VRate ktft/1000.28        30        31        19

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent), then becoming
                    mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 63.
Min humidity........49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph
                    until late afternoon.
Mixing height.......600-2300 ft AGL, increasing to 4900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 10 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair to excellent (14800-62300 knot-ft),
                    increasing to excellent (66700 knot-ft) late in
                    the morning.
Mixing height.......600-2300 ft AGL, increasing to 4900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 10 to 15 mph.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM
Sky (%).........92           56           30
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE         NONE         NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............44           50           60
RH..............95           80           53
20 FT wind......N 13G16      N 15G20      N 13G17
Mix hgt (ft)....800          2300         4500
Transport wind..NW 22        N 28         N 21
VRate ktft/1000.18           62           91

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.MONDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the mid 60s. North
winds around 6 mph.
.TUESDAY...
Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers. Lows in the upper 40s.
Highs in the upper 60s. East winds around 6 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...
Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows
in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid 60s. North winds around 12 mph.
.THURSDAY...
Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
mid 40s. Highs in the lower 70s.
.FRIDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower 70s.

$$
Forecaster...BROWN
Requested by...David Greathouse
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1807210.0/OUN
.EMAIL david.greathouse@ncagr.gov



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