646
FXUS63 KPAH 020447
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1147 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few showers or storms are possible this afternoon with above
  normal temperatures. Better rain/thunder chances are forecast
  Thursday night into Friday.

- Things then get fairly humid and unsettled. Pop up
  showers/thunderstorms are expected through the weekend.

- Monday-Wednesday next week looks to have a broader pattern mix
  of increased shear and instability that make give rise to more
  organized severe weather potential. Guidance solutions are too
  far apart right now to start zeroing in on anything in
  particular however.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Updated Aviation discussion for the 06z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Temperatures are stretching into the mid to upper 80s today
across the region with dewpoints in the mid 60s. A few cu are
bubbling up along the Ohio River and into SEMO. There is just a
bit of residual large scale lift evident ahead of a small
shortwave moving in from Missouri. By this afternoon isolated
short-lived showers and storms may very well start to pop up.
Weak shear and very marginal instability should prevent any
severe concerns.

Tomorrow a trough currently pushing off the Rocky mountains will
make its way towards the area. Jet-level forcing is weak but
there is a strong push of lower level warm air and moisture
advection just after sunrise that will likely initiate
showers/storms and some stratiform precip. Deep and low level
wind shear strengthen as the shortwave approaches but very poor
mid-level lapse rates look to keep instability limited and as
long as that holds our severe risk should be negligible. Some
locally heavy rain is possible but coverage/duration looks too
limited for significant issues. Highs will be quite warm, with
the current forecast pushing into the upper 80s area wide based
on how today performed.

A weak front associated with the passing trough mostly washes
out over the region in the 12z guidance suite. We maintain
fairly good rain chances through Friday but if that front can
clear more area than currently modeled we may get a bit of a
reprieve, particularly in our western counties Friday late
morning and afternoon before afternoon storms refire, dropping
again Friday night as daytime heating wanes.

Weak moisture return restarts Saturday. It looks like a
summertime pulse thunderstorm day with fairly weak shear and
good surface heating and moisture. Focused the PoPs more in the
afternoon and it really doesn`t look like a total washout type
day. The GFS advances a cold front closer to the area, where the
ECMWF holds it further northwest. It looks to me like the GFS
solution is in part based on convective feedback from
convection over OK/KS and prefer the ECMWF solution. Sunday both
ECMWF/GFS have a quick progressing shortwave mote through the
area and PoPs bump up once again there are timing discrepancies
between the two but afternoon/evening showers/storms seem like a
reasonable bet.

Monday into Tuesday a strong trough ejects off the Rocky
Mountains. There are considerable differences in deterministic
and ensemble guidance for the evolution of this trough which
would have substantial impacts on our severe weather/heavy rain
potential for this period. What does seem likely is another
surge of gusty south winds that send dewpoints close to 70.
Which at bare minimum is going to feel pretty awful compared to
what we have been used to this year but the increased moisture
will raise rain/thunder chances. The way the trough evolves in
the 12z deterministic ECMWF/GFS would probably give us the
potential for an organized severe weather event or few Monday-
Wednesday but the differences in solutions are too disparate to
start locking in on anything, but it is the right time of year
for that sort of thing.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

For the 06z TAFs, the last of the evening isolated showers and
thunderstorm activity will lift north the region, with only
passing mid- and high-level clouds expected overnight with light
and variable winds. After 14z, winds will pick up from the south
sustained at 6-8 kts with gusts of 15-20 kts in the afternoon.
FEW-SCT high-based CU around 6kft will also develop in the
afternoon.

After 03/00z, shower and thunderstorm activity will approach
the region from the west. CGI, PAH, and MVN will see impacts
prior to 06z, mainly in the form of -SHRA, but did include
PROB30 groups after 03z for limited -TSRA potential.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...DWS