Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 232023
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
323 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

H5 low was centered over NW TN. Breaks in the clouds allowed the
airmass to destabilize, with scattered showers and storms the
rule this afternoon across west KY into southern IL. This trend
will continue through late afternoon. A few storms will produce
pea size hail and 1/2 to 3/4 inch of rain in 30 to 45 minutes. We
should see a decrease in coverage and intensity tonight as we
stabilize somewhat. Sometimes the models hang on to too much low
level moisture in close proximity to closed lows like this. There
could be an increase in low clouds tonight, but overall confidence
is low. Will continue with a low chance of showers across mainly
our east counties on Tuesday with the low just to our east. Temp
trends tomorrow will be similar to what we saw today. Slightly
cooler over east sections.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Now that the closed low in southern CA/NV/AZ is within a denser
observational network, there should be a little more consistency in
the resolution/timing of the system as it move in and around the WFO
PAH forecast area on Monday. The Canadian guidance has been fairly
consistent the past couple of days with the evolution of this
system, but the deterministic 00z Friday GFS seems to have taken
over as the preferred medium range guidance for this forecast
package. At this point, there is medium to high forecast confidence
(50-70%) with the rain chances Monday into Monday evening.

Forecast confidence for rain chances Tuesday through Thursday are
below average (generally below 40%) as there high model variability
in both the deterministic and ensemble guidance on the timing,
evolution, translation, and phasing of the northern U.S./southern
Canadian border shortwave developing next Monday.  Given the
variability, will stick with the low PoP regionally blended model
guidance as a starting point. The antecedent eastern Pacific and
western Canada circulations serving as a genesis point for the
dominant shortwave on Monday are not even expected to move over the
northwest U.S. until Sunday at the earliest.  Utilized a blend of
the regionally blended model initialization with some influence of
the current deterministic/MOS GFS guidance and the spatially reduced
NAM guidance.

All in all, it appears that next week that next week will see below
normal (5-10 degrees below) highs and lows and mainly showery
precipitation with the greatest coverage Monday, then again
Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures may rebound to near normal next
Friday with dry conditions into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Low VFR to MVFR cig and vsby conditions anticipated through the
end of the day with scattered convection continuing. Surface low
pressure should track along the KY/TN border with mainly east
winds 6 to 12 kts continuing, transitioning to northeast and then
north later tonight and Tuesday as the low eventually moves on to
our east. We may see cigs lower back to solid MVFR to low end IFR
later tonight through Tuesday morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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