Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
369 FXUS63 KPAH 051938 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 238 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - An unsettled weather pattern will see scattered showers and storms starting this week increase in coverage and intensity potential by mid week. - Breezy south winds will pick up in similar fashion, offering 30-35 mph gust potential Tuesday-Wednesday. - A warm and relatively muggy air mass holds through mid week before a cool off with lower humidity returns spring like temperatures and dew points as we finish out the week and head into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 229 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Active weather continues this week with several rounds of rain and storms expected. This afternoon, temperatures are in the 70`s to near 80 degrees, on track to reach forecast highs. An upper level disturbance is currently moving through the Mississippi River valley this afternoon. Regional surface analysis places a weak front across the Quad State region, SW through portions of West Tennessee and central Arkansas. Radar imagery further south already shows an area of rain showers and embedded thunderstorms lifting through portions of Arkansas and north Mississippi. Some cooling cloud tops have been noted over the past few hours. This activity is modeled well by most CAM`s which suggest it will be moving into SEMO/WKY this afternoon and spreading northeast overnight. Albeit weak, low level flow should help to advect moisture northward with a gradual increase in CAPE (MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg). Wind shear may gradually increase over the next couple of hours presenting a marginal severe risk with a wind threat primarily. The upper level disturbance won`t be in any hurry to move through on Monday. This should keep PoPs in place through much of the morning and into the early afternoon, especially across WKY and SW IN. While there is a clear signal of forcing, coverage is a bit uncertain. Cloud cover and expected rain will keep highs in the upper 70`s. Eventually this activity moves east with the upper lvl disturbance heading into Monday night. Further west, activity across the plains will move across Missouri as a line of showers and storms. At this time, there is some disagreement on exact timing of when this activity moves in but it looks like it will be Tuesday morning. Ahead of this, some isolated to scattered activity may develop as a warm front lifts north early Tuesday morning. The above mentioned precipitation add a sizable amount of uncertainty to how the rest of Tuesday goes. Most guidance sources do show the potential for organized severe weather potential along with a Day 3 slight risk from SPC. Wednesday continues to look prime for severe weather conditions. Deep layer troughing will remain parked across the Rockies and northern plains. A wave is progged to dig into the central plains with increasing large-scale forcing tied to a 100+ kt upper level jet. This will drive a surface low from the central plains Wed morning to the Midwest by Wed afternoon. Shear and instability overlap still looks very conducive to severe weather Wednesday with all hazards possible at this time. Current thinking remains the same that convection moves through in the Wed afternoon/evening. Developing low pressure to the west will lead to increasing southerly winds Tuesday and Wednesday. Wind gusts increase to 30+ mph both days. PoPs gradually decrease into Thursday associated with the frontal passage. Thu-Fri offers drier weather (lower PoPs) with lower humidity and cooler temperatures. High temperatures by Friday will be in the upper 60`s to low 70`s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 A line of SHRA/TSRA will move SW to NE this afternoon and evening impacting terminals with low cigs and visb at times. Guidance favors this line waning in intensity rather quickly as it moves into western Kentucky. Highest confidence in TSRA is at PAH with lesser potential at CGI. Elsewhere SHRA is expected overnight. Terminals currently at VFR will see MVFR cigs move back in overnight with further reductions to IFR close to sunrise. Winds veer toward the south tonight less than 10 kt. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AD AVIATION...AD