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822
FXUS63 KPAH 010747
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
247 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Above normal temperatures peak today and Thursday in the upper
  80s, just shy of breaking records around 90F. After a brief
  cool down on Friday in the upper 70s, daily temperatures
  quickly rebound back into the lower 80s through early next
  week.

- A stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out this afternoon
  into the evening; otherwise, daily chances of showers and
  storms return late Thursday into Friday as a cold front moves
  through the region. Heavy rain and lightning will be the main
  hazards of concern.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Tranquil conditions to start off the morning as a weak ridge of high
pressure moves east of the FA today. Modest WAA and isentropic lift
could trigger a stray shower or storm northwest of the Ohio later
this afternoon into the evening, but most locations likely remain
dry. Despite 1500-2000 J/kg of 0-1km MLCAPE, effective bulk shear is
about 20 kts at best. Given the lack of forcing, have limit NBM PoPs
to a slight chance as many of the CAMs show very little pcpn. The
main concern with any storms that do develop will be heavy downpours
and lightning. Otherwise, today and Thursday will be unseasonably
warm as an upper level ridge builds into the SE CONUS. MaxTs will be
at least 10F above normal in the upper 80s, just below record warmth
near 90F.

In the wake of a cold front on Friday, southern stream energy will
provide forcing for ascent late Thursday into Thursday night.
Showers and a few storms will be possible before peaking on Friday.
The shear is meager favoring heavy downpours being the main hazard
of concern with PWATs peaking around 1.5 inches. QPF between a half
to one inch is progged with locally higher amounts possible. There
is a bit of uncertainty on how quickly the front clears the FA
Friday afternoon as the GEFS/EPS are a bit slower compared to some
of the deterministic models. This has similarities to the previous
system, as it appears there will be another 500 mb impulse on Friday
that could cause an uptick in lift to enhance pcpn along the frontal
boundary. The greatest risk would be over southwest Indiana and
western Kentucky before diminishing at night. MaxTs will be cooler
in the upper 70s.

The weekend remains a bit unsettled with daily PoP chances from late
Saturday through Monday as subtle disturbances move across the FA.
The parameters do not look terribly concerning and favor just
typical isolated to scattered storms at times. However, the end of
the forecast period on Tuesday may be when there will be better
synoptic support at the jet level for more robust storms as a 500 mb
closed low is progged to eject across the central Plains. There is
low confidence in timing, but another cold front looks to eventually
impact the FA around the middle of next week. MaxTs Saturday through
Tuesday will be back in the 80s.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

For the 06z TAFs, forecast confidence is high that the region
will see VFR conditions with increasing upper-level cirrus
cloud coverage from 06-18z, with SCT diurnal CU developing after
15z. Winds will be light from the S to SSE at 4-6 kts or less,
becoming SW at AOA 7 kts after 15z.

Forecast confidence decreases for the 01/18z to 02/06z period as
as a frontal boundary sags southward into the region from the N
and NW. This may kick off isolated -SHRA or -TSRA during the
heat of the afternoon into the early evening hours, but
confidence was too low to include at this time. Winds will
become light and variable after 02/00z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DWS