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000
FXUS63 KPAH 190744
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
244 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and much cooler conditions can be expected today through
  the weekend.

- Low temperatures dipping into the middle to upper 30s Saturday
  night and especially Sunday night will give us the potential
  for some frost.

- A return of south to southwest winds will bring warmer
  temperatures to the region Monday into Tuesday.

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms return Tuesday into
  Tuesday night, and again possibly late Wednesday night into
  Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Cooler conditions will filter in today behind the cold front
currently moving through our region. RAP/HRRR 1000-850mb
moisture indicates low clouds across the area will slowly
decrease from northwest to southeast today. These clouds, along
with breezy northwest to north winds, will only allow high
temperatures to climb into the 60s today, which is around 15
degrees cooler than yesterday. The cooling trend will continue
through the weekend, with highs Saturday and Sunday mostly in
the 60 to 65 degree range. Of more interest are the overnight
lows. Saturday night lows will range from the upper 30s north to
the middle 40s south. With some clouds and a little bit of
wind, chances of frost for our northern counties will be small.
By Sunday night, surface high pressure that will have been
building in from the west will move overhead. This will result
in mostly clear skies and light to calm winds. This will allow
lows to drop into the middle 30s north and west to near 40
degrees south, resulting in some frost potential, especially
across our northern and western counties. This is something to
monitor over the next couple of days.

Dry conditions are expected today through Monday night. The
surface high will move off to our east Monday, bringing a
return of south to southwest winds. Temperatures will warm back
up into the middle 60s to lower 70s, which is near seasonable
values. On Tuesday, models take a surface low into the Great
Lakes region, which will drag a cold front through the middle
Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday night. This will give the PAH forecast area chances of
showers and thunderstorms. By Wednesday night into Thursday,
models develop a surface low over the Central Plains, which
lifts a warm front into our region. The timing with this system
varies between the models, with some holding off any showers and
storms until the very end of the work week. The NBM spreads
slight to chance PoPs across our area late Wednesday night
through Thursday, but timing adjustments are likely with this
system. Temperatures Wednesday through Thursday will be a few
degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 129 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Convection will end from west to east across the TAF sites by
12z. MVFR vsbys will accompany shra/tsra at KEVV/KOWB until 09z.
MVFR to IFR cigs will linger behind the convection at all sites for
several hours, with CGI/KMVN improving to VFR by around 13z,
and KPAH/KEVV/KOWB by 15z-18z. At KCGI/KMVN/KPAH, winds will be
from the northwest to north at 10-20kts with gusts of around
25kts through 12z, becoming less gusty and gradually decreasing
through the day. At KEVV/KOWB, southwest winds around 10 kts
will shift to the northwest then north between 08z-12z and
increase to 10-15kts.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...RST