Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 180925

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
425 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

High pressure moving east out of the upper OH Valley region will
bring a dry day to the region to end the weekend. Biggest question
today looks to be whether the stratus clouds draped across the
region will be able to mix out and give the some areas enough
sunshine to help temps reach well into the 50s despite a north
to east sfc wind.

Main show in the short term will come as a mid level low pressure
and associated surface front move east across the region Monday.
the Surface warm front ahead of the low still looks as though it
will stay down across cntrl TN, with the h850 low stretching
from near PAH to BWG KY Monday afternoon. Higher severe storm
risk should stay along/south of the surface front, but a few
stronger storms may work their way north of the sfc boundary
across southern KY and the Bootheel of MO on Monday. Over QPF
looking to stay less than an inch in most locations, so should
not be enough to affect major river levels at this time.

Another H50 low will cross the region Tuesday, but with little
low level forcing and overall moisture, so will keep pops and QPF
pretty minimal for now.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

By 12Z Wednesday, our early week system will be east of the area
but it will take most of the day for high pressure to slowly
filter in. Therefore, gusty northwesterly winds will be with us to
start out the day and there could be some lingering cloudiness in
the east, but clouds will shift east and winds will decrease with
time. Highs will remain similar to Tuesday, and range from the
mid to upper 40s north to lower 50s south.

On 12Z Thursday, weak surface high pressure will be situated over
the area. However, this high will shift east throughout the day.
There are still substantial differences between the available model
guidance on the approach of our next weather system. The latest GFS
continues to be quicker in spreading precipitation across the area
Thursday night as a low pressure system leaps eastward into eastern
KS. The GFS ensemble means as well as the ECMWF and Canadian do not
indicate this quick progression and keep the advancing warm front to
our south. If the GFS is correct, some of the precipitation could
end up being a mix wintry mix Thursday night due to the temperature
profiles. But, where the colder temperatures lie is not where the
better POPs are right now anyway so hopefully it will end up not
being a big deal.

These speed differences carry through for the rest of the forecast
period with this system as the upper level flow pattern is not being
depicted similarly between models. Therefore, confidence is not high
on any given period right now. Will attempt to keep POPs rather low
for now given the timing uncertainties. However, it does appear as
though Friday night into Saturday may be our best rain chances right
now given the newest ECMWF and GFS ensemble means.&&

Issued at 650 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

In the wake of a cold front, MVFR ceilings over the northern half of
the area will gradually spread into the southern half through the
evening. Ceilings may even teeter on IFR levels in the KEVV/KOWB
area late tonight and early Sunday morning. MVFR ceilings will
likely linger at KEVV/KOWB through much of Sunday, but may scatter
out at KCGI/KPAH. North/northwest winds tonight will veer easterly
on Sunday as high pressure gives way to developing low pressure over
the Plains.




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