Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 231802

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
102 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

With the warm front perched just to the south, mid clouds/returns
were still falling into high (td) depression air/mostly
evaporating before reaching the ground. This should metamorphosize
during the next 12 to 18 hours, as the front itself lifts further
northward and eastward. The models have fairly consistently hit
upon this trend, with the only real oscillation being in the exact
location of the lifted boundary by morning. At this point, it
appears it will lift across the south and hang up / separate our
northeast third of the FA.

Moistening/destabilization of the column follows, so thunder is
still expected from the south/west, to enter the forecast late
tonight/early tmrw. This chance will spread eastward with the
racing of the surface Low eastward during the daytime Saturday, as
it basically bee lines across the FA. Best chances for
heavier/focused rain showers will be along the warm front itself,
across our north, although perhaps better thunder chances in the
max instability field, will be across the south. Storm total
(average) QPF amounts should range from 1-1.5 inches along/north
of the boundary (Evv Tri State area), to half inch amounts or less
across our southwest part of the CWA. The primary system, with
the bulk pops/thunder chances, will exit to the south and east of
the FA by the end of the day.

Backwash/instability shower activity will persist into/thru the
overnight hours, as last bit energy rotates around the mean upper
trof/across the Ohio river valley. Critical boundary layer temps
later Saturday night temper a flirtation with changeover pcpn,
but it appears such occurrences will be mainly just north and east
of our FA and even if it does occur, negligible QPF means it will
be a nil impact changeover as surface temps (lows) remain above
freezing Sat night, even in the north.

Sunday still looks dry in the wake of the departed system. Rain
chances return to the forecast as early as Sunday night however,
as the atmosphere preps for next week`s wet period with a
deeper/moistening from backed southwesterlies aloft.

Large scale ranging of temps will continue across the FA due to
the lift of the warm front, delineating the cooler northeast from
the warmer southwest by 10F plus degrees. However by Sunday, after
the system and boundaries sweep on thru, that will equalize to 50s
for Highs and upper 30s-lower 40s for Lows.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

A low will develop over Colorado late in the weekend and a
southerly flow will develop as the Gulf opens up for business.
This will result in a warm front developing and pushing north
toward the region early next week. There will also be an inverted
trough caught up in the flow that will work in tandem with the
increasing southerly flow at the surface. This will result in a very
high likelyhood of rain across the area. Rainfall amounts are not
too high for the start of the week as it will take some time for
the moisture to max out over the region. As we head into Tuesday
and especially Tuesday night rainfall amounts will increase
significantly. Thunder is possible Monday into Tuesday but it
would certainly not be surfaced based but elevated. Elevated
instability is not that strong either with K index values maxing
out around 30c and MU capes around a negative one. Showalters also
go negative mainly Monday morning but they do slip back into at
least West KY Tuesday. The largest threat however would be heavy
rain with or without thunder as PW`s start to approach 1.5 inches
as we head through Tuesday. In addition winds will be gusty and
strong through the first half of next week at least. The strongest
winds will be on Tuesday.

For Wednesday into Thursday the rain threat continues as a cold
front moves through the area. There will be a chance of the cold
front hanging up which would increase rainfall amounts mainly over
Western KY. However it does appear that it will be lesser amounts
than Tuesday. Finally the upper level trough appears to rotate
through Late Thursday night bringing an end to the rain chances.

Temperatures will be at or above normal through next week until
Friday after the cold front moves east of the region.


Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Mid cloud bases streaming overtop warm front just to south will
continue to lower with time, as warm front lifts northward/settles
across flight forecast area. Model soundings still indicate it
will take awhile, prob into tonight, for moistening into the
flight restricted cats. As this occurs, rain chances spike, and
cigs lower to MVFR overnight, with showers offering MVFR
restrictions to vsbys as well. A slight chance of thunder will
enter the forecast in the warm sector, so KCGI/KPAH, late
tonight-early tmrw, as the column there destabilizes. This will
spread northward/eastward with time tmrw, beyond the purview of
this forecast. Winds may become gusty late tonight-early tmrw
along the warm front/boundary and in the warm sector itself.
Isolated IFR cigs and vsbys in heavier showers may also begin to
appear in the warm sector by that time as well.



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