000
FXUS63 KPAH 151105 AAA
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
605 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm weather continues through mid week.

- Next chance for severe weather comes Tuesday evening through Wednesday
  morning.

- Cooler and drier Friday onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Surface analysis shows a warm front developing just to the north
of the CWA with 50-60 degree dewpoints starting to work in from
the southwest. Mildly diffluent flow can be found over the
southern Plains and to the west a strong upper closed low. As
that low emerges off the Rockies tonight low level flow in our
area will tighten up and lead to frontogenetic forcing along our
northern counties, particularly along the I-64 corridor. We will
probably see a few thunderstorms get going this evening. Given
low freezing levels and modest instability some pulse severe
activity is possible mainly in the form of brief damaging winds
or hail. The shear profiles are not entirely supportive of more
organized convection but they will be close.

Tuesday then looks fairly dry as the main upper low approaches.
Still concerned about the strength of the shear in place with
moderate instability indicated. Models seem to be underdoing
moisture return to some extent and those that aren`t show 65-67
degree dewpoints over SEMO by 02-03z. As a jet max moves
overhead subsidence and an EML seem to diminish the convection
that gets going, but we will need to be vigilant as I don`t
totally buy this if convection gets going. Strong low level
moisture advection and steep mid level lapse rates may very well
yield surface based instability through the overnight hours. In
which case shear profiles would maintain a risk for isolated
tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. The front then clears
by midday Wednesday drying us out for a period.

Another storm system approaches for Thursday into Friday. Run-
to-run consistency and model to model consistency on this
feature is poor. The GFS has tended to keep the front a little
further south, keeping us dry. Where the ECMWF lifts it back
north in a way to give us some thunder chances Thursday night.
The good news is shear profiles look quite a bit weaker at this
point so the severe weather potential in the form of
tornadoes/wind look lower, but couldn`t completely rule out some
hail.

Once this front clears we dip down into the 40s for lows for a
few days with cooler days. Still too warm for frost/freeze as it
stands right now.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 605 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

VFR conditions are forecast through most of the day today.
Widely scattered thunderstorms are possible along and just
south of the Interstate 64 corridor late this afternoon through
early evening. Otherwise a moderate south to southwest wind is
forecast through the day, diminishing after sunset.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG