000
FXUS63 KPAH 191145
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
645 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and much cooler conditions can be expected today through
  the weekend.

- Low temperatures dipping into the middle to upper 30s Saturday
  night and especially Sunday night will give us the potential
  for some frost.

- A return of south to southwest winds will bring warmer
  temperatures to the region Monday into Tuesday.

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms return Tuesday into
  Tuesday night, and again possibly late Wednesday night into
  Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Updated aviation section for 12z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Cooler conditions will filter in today behind the cold front
currently moving through our region. RAP/HRRR 1000-850mb
moisture indicates low clouds across the area will slowly
decrease from northwest to southeast today. These clouds, along
with breezy northwest to north winds, will only allow high
temperatures to climb into the 60s today, which is around 15
degrees cooler than yesterday. The cooling trend will continue
through the weekend, with highs Saturday and Sunday mostly in
the 60 to 65 degree range. Of more interest are the overnight
lows. Saturday night lows will range from the upper 30s north to
the middle 40s south. With some clouds and a little bit of
wind, chances of frost for our northern counties will be small.
By Sunday night, surface high pressure that will have been
building in from the west will move overhead. This will result
in mostly clear skies and light to calm winds. This will allow
lows to drop into the middle 30s north and west to near 40
degrees south, resulting in some frost potential, especially
across our northern and western counties. This is something to
monitor over the next couple of days.

Dry conditions are expected today through Monday night. The
surface high will move off to our east Monday, bringing a
return of south to southwest winds. Temperatures will warm back
up into the middle 60s to lower 70s, which is near seasonable
values. On Tuesday, models take a surface low into the Great
Lakes region, which will drag a cold front through the middle
Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday night. This will give the PAH forecast area chances of
showers and thunderstorms. By Wednesday night into Thursday,
models develop a surface low over the Central Plains, which
lifts a warm front into our region. The timing with this system
varies between the models, with some holding off any showers and
storms until the very end of the work week. The NBM spreads
slight to chance PoPs across our area late Wednesday night
through Thursday, but timing adjustments are likely with this
system. Temperatures Wednesday through Thursday will be a few
degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 645 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

The back edge of MVFR to IFR clouds will move east this
morning, with mainly scattered high clouds at KCGI/KEVV by
14z-16z, and KPAH/KOWB by 16z-18z. KMVN will see scattered high
clouds through the TAF period. Winds will be from the northwest
to north at 10-15kts with an occasional higher gusts,
decreasing to 5-10kts after 00z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...RST