Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 201118
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
718 AM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide dry weather into early next week,
along with a warming trend towards seasonable temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Minor tweaks made to sky grids to show reflect the zero clouds
observed on satellite data. Otherwise, the dry forecast remains
on track.

Previous Discussion...
A large high pressure center will drift into the Great Lakes
today. Skies will be mostly clear today thanks to a dry column.
Cirrus will begin to arrive late tonight, spilling over a mid-
level ridge over the Mississippi Valley. Temperatures will
moderate somewhat from yesterday`s values, but will remain 10 to
15 degrees below normal through tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Decently thick mid and upper level clouds will develop
Saturday/Saturday night as the flattening ridge moves across,
especially across the southern counties. However, the lack of
lift and low level moisture will preclude precipitation. Sunday
will feature a bit more sunshine as the clouds get shunted to
the south somewhat by the passage of a shortwave trough axis
aloft. Another ridge builds in Sunday night.

Temperatures will continue their moderating trend, finally
reaching seasonal levels by Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The models are in loose agreement that a 500 mb low will curve
from the lower Mississippi Valley early Monday into the central
Ohio Valley by late Tuesday. This will lead to an increase in
rain chances from south to north during this period. The details
thereafter remain murky as there is still disagreement in
if/how a northern stream disturbance interacts and/or phases
with the original southern stream low. In any event, conditions
into Thursday look to remain fairly unsettled, with continued
shower chances. Temperatures will remain fairly seasonable
overall.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Building high pressure should maintain VFR conditions through
the TAF period. NW winds should also diminish this eve with a
decreasing pressure gradient.

OUTLOOK...
Restriction potential returns with Tue low pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$


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