Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 200038 AAC AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 838 PM EDT Sat May 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Although Sunday on the whole will be rain-free, a series of disturbances will keep periodic showers and storms in the forecast through the first half of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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After convection subsides this evening, abundant low-level moisture will linger overnight before being shunted swd Sun morning by an advancing frontal boundary. While this moisture will maintain elevated minima, widespread fog development is uncertain owing to expected light wind ahead of the front. For the moment, the forecast will include light fog in sheltered valleys in the ridge zones, where moisture pooling and limited wind are most likely to overlap. Amid building sfc high pressure, no convection is expected nwd from the stalled frontal boundary, which will reside along the srn periphery of the forecast area by Sun afternoon. Low PoPs were maintained during this time should any convection develop along the stalled boundary in the afternoon. Previous discussion follows... Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected through the evening as a frontal system and associated upper trough impact the region. With dewpoints up into the mid 60s...showers and storms will develop as temperatures increase and convective thresholds are met. There was no change to SPC`s forecast for marginal outlook/isolated severe tstm coverage. This seems reasonable as latest soundings have been consistent in showing marginal speed shear and instability which could result in a few strong storms with damaging wind and large hail. 99th percentile PWATs and relatively deep warm cloud depth will result in heavy downpours with storms, however, storm motion looks to be sufficient to preclude significant flood potential. Temperatures will be relatively warm this evening as the associated cold front is not expected to cross until several hours after midnight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Low pressure will track slowly across the Midwest Sun night through Mon night, dragging the sfc front back nwd as a warm front and increasing potential for showers and storms. Temperature is expected to remain above seasonal average.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The aforementioned low and associated cold front will cross the Upper OH Valley region Tue/Tue night and bring another round of showers and storms to the region. We will finally see a break in the weather the remainder of the work week as ridging builds in the region.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Convection will trend downward early this evening before a cold front crosses after midnight. Increasing low clouds are expected in the wake of the front, with conditions dropping to MVFR/IFR levels owing to the abundant low-level moisture. High pressure building on Sun will lead to an eventual return to VFR conditions by Sun afternoon. OUTLOOK... Brief restrictions are expected most of next week as the weather pattern remains active. No sustained periods of IFR are predicted, although thunderstorms on Mon/Tue could lead to such restrictions.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ Kramar

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