Area Forecast Discussion
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549 FXUS61 KPBZ 251736 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 136 PM EDT Fri May 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will maintain dry weather and warm temperatures today. The threat for showers and storms returns this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Dewpoints have shot up today with increased moisture out of the south but despite the low level moisture surge increasing instability...the ridge axis currently transitioning over the area should keep a lid on convection today. Highest probability is south and east of Pittsburgh, but opted to not mention in the forecast with the latest update as chances look too low. Latest guidance has pushed back timing of the next shortwave approaching from west so have kept a dry forecast in place overnight. Lows will be well above normal with increasing cloud coverage.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected on Saturday as a shortwave crosses and triggers convection...increasing in coverage during peak heating in the afternoon/evening. Temperatures will continue to be well above average. More of the same expected on Sunday with little change in the overall pattern or forecast for Sunday.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Hot and humid conditions with diurnally supported convection will persist through the extended with the best chance of organized precipitation later in the week. Only minor adjustments were made...with PoPs lowered on Monday (but not removed) as there looks to be a better cap on convection.
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&& .AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pres will maintain VFR today with the only caveat being that some isolated convection is possible late this afternoon and evening with a crossing disturbance. This potential is expected mainly from PIT swd. OUTLOOK... Restriction potential returns with a weekend low pressure trough. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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