Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 171125 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 725 AM EDT Tue Apr 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered to numerous snow showers will persist today although accumulation will not be significant. Cool air and unsettled weather will remain over the region until seasonable warmth returns for the start of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Only minor adjustments needed to PoPs to account for light snow showers moving through the PGH metro area this morning. Otherwise, previous forecast remains on track. Increasing northwest flow in the wake of a shortwave moving through the entrenched upper trough over the Nern U.S. will support additional snow shower enhancement today, as will passage of another shortwave currently slated for early afternoon. The relatively warm ground, mid-April sun angle, and a warming boundary layer will preclude problems. That warm boundary layer with highs at the convective thresholds will serve to not only support snow showers, but mixing for wind gusts as well. Expect gusts of 20 to 30 mph with highs about 20 degrees under the averages.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... A generally high-confidence forecast is indicated through late this week given uncharacteristic consistency among model ensembles. Shortwave ridging in advance of Plains low pressure briefly will modify temperature back toward seasonal averages for Wed. The aforementioned Plains low is progged to cross the Midwest and generate precipitation late Wed and Thu, with its cold surge dropping temperature below seasonal average again for the close of the work-week. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Another digging Plains low is expected to support Upper Ohio ridging with dry weather and seasonable warmth by early next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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MVFR ceilings will linger through most of Today as will sct to nmrs shsn. Sfc gusts of 20 to 30 knots can again be expected as mixing improves by afternoon. Diminished wind and cloud cover can be expected by tonight as high pressure briefly builds before late Wednesday deterioration. OUTLOOK... Restriction potential returns with a Wed night/Thu cold front.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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