233
FXUS61 KPBZ 282342
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
742 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperature is expected through much of the
upcoming week while precipitation chances will be mainly focused
on Tuesday and Friday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Overnight temperatures are expected to be 10 to 15 degrees
  above normal.

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Dry, quiet weather is expected under high pressure. With a
lingering warm airmass, above normal temperatures will continue.
Record high minimum temperature could be tied at HLG if the
temp stays above 65F before midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Near record high max temperature Monday and high min
  temperature Tuesday are each possible.
- Showers and thunderstorms return Tuesday.

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Eastern CONUS ridging will remain intact Monday as an upper
level trough lifts northward through the northern Mississippi
River Valley. Warm air aloft and subsidence will cap any
convection, keeping dry conditions in place and allowing for
plenty of insolation. Near to record high temperatures are in
play for most climate sites, with only a deviation toward 75th
to 90th percentile temperature to realize new records. This is
not out of question as high temperature this past Saturday for
most sites ended up above the 90th percentile outcome.

Gradual ridge breakdown will occur Monday night into Tuesday
with shortwave movement shunts the ridge axis southeast.
Increase moist advection resulting in higher cloud cover should
insulate the region and buoy low temperature Tuesday morning.
Near to record high minimum temperature at most climate sites
could result (see climate section).

Variability remains in the strength of the initial wave and
presence of a follow-up trough, but either upper level feature
is expected to be weak while slowly pushing a weak cold front
through the region. Shortwave trough shape/movement will dictate
precipitation timing and degree of heating ahead of the cold
front; latest trends have a slower progression of these features
that keep precipitation chance into Tuesday night. Any severe
threat will depend on strength of that passing shortwave. It
still appears that the severe threat will be limited given
excessive cloud cover and residual warm air aloft acting to cap
upward momentum (CAPE values likely to be less than 500 J/kg).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- An unsettled pattern continues through the long term with
  above-average temperatures favored.

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High pressure and ridging are likely to develop behind the
exiting shortwave Wednesday, though the degree of height rises
remain uncertain. Further re-establishment of the eastern CONUS
ridge (and central plains trough) will drive area temperature
well above normal again both Wednesday and Thursday while
maintaining dry weather.

Ensembles favor upper level trough movement through the Great
Lakes region Friday into the weekend that would push the ridge
axis southeast and introduce widespread shower and thunderstorm
chances. Timing of said pattern shift (which will play role in
precipitation timing and temperature trends Friday into
Saturday).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR will prevail through the TAF period under a lingering
ridge. Skies will remain mostly clear through Monday, with
clouds increasing Monday night ahead of a cold front.

Southerly wind remains light overnight, with gusts to 15-20 kts
Monday afternoon as winds back southwesterly.

.Outlook...
Restrictions will likely return in showers and possible
thunderstorms on Tuesday with a crossing cold front. VFR
returns Wednesday and Thursday under high pressure.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Here is a table of the record high and low temperatures Monday.
(* denotes current forecasted temperature exceeds value)

                  Record High  Year    Record Low  Year
Pittsburgh             88      (1899)      65      (1974)
Wheeling               86*     (1942)      64      (1914)
Morgantown             91      (1899)      67      (1914)
New Philadelphia       90      (1986)      64      (1974)
Zanesville             90      (1899)      67      (1914)
Dubois                 80*     (1970)      61*     (1974)

Here is a table of the record low temperatures Tuesday.
(* denotes current forecasted temperature exceeds value)

                  Record Low  Year
Pittsburgh             69      (1899)
Wheeling               58*     (1911)
Morgantown             66      (1910)
New Philadelphia       63      (1991)
Zanesville             69      (1910)
Dubois                 60*     (1970)

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frazier
NEAR TERM...Frazier
SHORT TERM...Frazier
LONG TERM...Frazier
AVIATION...Rackley
CLIMATE...