Area Forecast Discussion
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138 FXUS61 KPBZ 250922 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 522 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers are expected today with the approach and passage of a cold front. High pressure should return dry weather for Thursday before rain chances return with Friday low pressure. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Isolated showers are expected this morning with most of the region in a dry slot as low pressure drifts E across the Mid Atlantic region. Shower coverage should increase and become scattered later this morning and afternoon as another trough and associated cold front crosses the Lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions. High temperatures are expected to be around 5 degrees below average. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The trough should exit the area this evening as high pressure builds from the west and returns dry weather to the area through Thursday night. A srn stream low is progged to track across the Mid Atlantic region Friday, as the next nrn stream trough advances out of the Midwest. The GFS is slightly slower with the track of the low than the ECMWF and NAM, and results in more phasing with the nrn stream trough and more rain across our area. Sided close to a guidance blend, which brings limited rain chances to the area with the srn stream low, and rain chances area wide as the trough and associated cold front approaches in the afternoon. Maintained chance pops Friday night as another trough rotates around an upper low in Canada. Warmer, but still below average temperatures are expected. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Rain chances should continue Saturday until the trough completes its passage. Sfc high pressure should return dry but cool weather for Sunday. A building ridge should then maintain dry weather with much warmer temperatures through the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Expect most terminals to deteriorate towards MVFR/local IFR ceilings this morning. MVFR will continue with the approach and passage of a cold front and midlevel trough, although any visibility restriction from showers should be brief. A period of IFR ceilings is possible behind this boundary, especially from PIT on north, but timing of this is rather low confidence. Still expecting slow improvement behind the front into the evening, although some guidance is more pessimistic, holding on to some IFR through much of the night. OUTLOOK... The next chance for general restrictions is expected with the crossing of weak low pressure on Friday.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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