Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 160800 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 400 AM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Periodic snow showers and cold temperatures are expected into the afternoon under upper level low pressure. An area of mixed precipitation could clip the far south Saturday morning. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Cold pool aloft will drift to the northeast this morning behind the exiting shortwave trough. Winds aloft will shift more to the north and the moisture, and lingering snow showers, will also drift eastward through the morning hours. By the afternoon, surface high will move across Ohio, allowing for an increase in subsidence and a decrease in moisture. Any remaining snow showers, generally over the I-80 corridor and ridges will dissipate, and cloud cover will decrease from west to east. Temperatures today will remain well below normal. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... A brief dry spell tonight before another system just clips the southern reaches of my forecast area. Models continue to show a trend of dissipating the northern edge of the precipitation shield as the deep moisture is carried further south. Current guidance is coming into agreement, that the most likely places for mixed precipitation would be over my southern border, while there will be enough cold air to support all snow just north of the mix. The surface low responsible for the precipitation Saturday will quickly transition to the east coast, bringing an end to precipitation during the afternoon over the far southeastern ridges. With models continuing to come to a solution on the what and where, its a bit too early to consider headlines, but this will need to be monitored in future forecast. Sunday should be a rather nice day with sunshine, but still below normal temps. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The next chance of rain will arrive late Monday into Monday night with low pressure tracking from the central United States to West Virginia before the track begins to wobble around. Brought likely pops into locations south of Interstate 70 Monday night and Tuesday, then model uncertainty with the location of the low pressure system takes over and have stuck with chance pops through Wednesday night. Temperatures will be near normal on Monday, then drop below normal again for the rest of the week. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MVFR and low-end VFR stratocu will continue to affect area terminals this morning along with IFR in scattered snow showers. Snow shower coverage will decrease after sunrise as the supporting disturbance departs. Improvement to VFR can be expected thereafter, although higher based stratocu will likely persist. OUTLOOK... Restrictions and a wintry pcpn mix are possible at ZZV, MGW, and HLG early on Saturday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.