Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 210053 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 853 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... After a brief stretch of dry weather, the chance for rain returns late Monday into Tuesday. Conditions should dry out by Wednesday and stay that way through Thursday. Unsettled weather returns for the holiday weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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No changes needed for the evening update. Forecast is in good shape. Previous discussion below: Scattered storms remain south of our West Virginia counties as the surface boundary continues to push south of the Mason Dixon line. Forecast challenge for this time frame is the development and aerial extent of fog? Surface dewpoints continue to lower into the upper 50s across most of Pennsylvania and eastern Ohio, This places values near the cross over temperature which indicates potential for fog development. With only a few hours of clearing this afternoon, there is still plenty of low level moisture. Therefore, will continue trend of patchy fog for all areas overnight. A warm front ahead of an mid western cyclone moves through during the afternoon hours. Atmosphere will be too stable to ignite any pop up shower or storm until its passage. Confined pops for the daylight hours across eastern Ohio and the northern WV panhandle and that won`t be until the afternoon.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The front that has stalled out to the south will be brought back to the north by a wave of low pressure moving to the northeast. The low pressure will be over western Ohio Monday evening and over Lake Erie by Tuesday morning. The highest chances for precipitation will be during the Monday night/Tuesday period and have continued likely pops. This front which has been in and around the region for more than a week should finally move definitively to the south Tuesday night into Wednesday, allowing for a period of dry weather. Temperatures will be a few degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Surface high pressure should allow for dry weather over multiple days before the chance of rain returns for the weekend with low pressure moving over the Great Lakes. Have maintained likely pops on Sunday with the passage of a cold front. Temperatures should remain a few degrees above normal. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High confidence forecast save for visibilities during the predawn hours where they could be lower than forecast. VFR weather will continue most of the forecast period. With temperatures cooling back, patchy fog will develop in the 8z- 12z time window. Any fog will quickly dissipate and yield to VFR weather. Diurnal cumulus again will develop in the afternoon. As a warm front approaches from the west, showers and storms will approach, however coverage and onset time resides at the end of the forecast period and was not included. Winds will be light from the north then become light and variable tonight through Monday. OUTLOOK... No widespread IFR weather is expected. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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