Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA

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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 231646 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1246 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather and a warming trend is expected through Monday. The next chance of rain returns Tuesday. Temperature will stay above average to close out the month. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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KEY MESSAGES: - Seasonally cool conditions will prevail with decreasing cloud cover. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Radar trends indicate that precipitation has come to a close for the area as drier and cooler air fills in behind a cold front. Upper level clouds are departing, but northerly flow over Lake Erie, low-level cold advection, and a passing mid-level shortwave trough will all be favorable for stratocumulus maintenance for much of the day. This will act to limit daytime high recoveries through this afternoon, even with the March sun. Daytime mixing below the inversion may allow for gusts of up to 20mph to 30mph this afternoon in an elevated pressure gradient behind the low. Surface saturation and cold advection with orographic influences has led to dense fog development in eastern Tucker County, justifying a dense fog advisory. Probabilities of fog decrease after 4p as dry air reinforcement arrives. By the time late afternoon and evening comes around, there is some indication that mixing will overcome saturation below the inversion and allow drier air to clear some low-cloud cover, particularly in eastern Ohio. If this does realize, temperatures could peak a few degrees higher before sunset. Overnight tonight, there is some deviance in the cloud cover forecast. If mixing and clearing is more robust today, there is a higher probability those clear conditions will persist overnight. If not, some low clouds may linger, most likely for the ridges and northwest Pennsylvania. Utilizing efficient radiate cooling, lows are expected to bottom out around 10 degrees below average, with the most temperature uncertainty tied to cloud cover uncertainty.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Dry weather through Monday under high pressure - Warmer temperatures Sunday and Monday ------------------------------------------------------------------- A broad surface high will move north of the region Sunday as minor 500mb height rises are anticipated. This will keep the area dry and should provide mainly clear skies. The colder air aloft will be shoved northeastward as the upper level heights slowly rise. Sunday will still be a bit cool with temperatures at or just below seasonal averages. Shortwave continues across the Upper Ohio Valley region through Monday. A warming trend is expected on Monday as the ridge axis shifts east of the area, and the flow veers to the south. Highs are expected to be 10 to 15 degrees above average by Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Rain chances return Tuesday and Wednesday with a cold front - Mainly dry and seasonable to end the week ---------------------------------------------------------------- Model ensembles indicate a trough across the central CONUS will advance slowly eastward toward the Upper Ohio Valley region Tuesday and Wednesday. Increasing rain chances are expected as the trough and its associated surface cold front track east across the area. The front is expected to move east of the area by Thursday, though some uncertainty exists in how far east it will progress before a wave of low pressure tracks north along it. Maintained slight-low chance pops due to the uncertainty. High pressure is expected to build across the region Thursday night and Friday, with dry and seasonable weather expected. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A slow improvement to MVFR cigs is expected to continue this afternoon, with a return to VFR especially for airports west of I 79 as high pressure begins to build in, and dry advection occurs. Stratocu is expected to persist tonight for airports outside of Ohio, though cig levels are uncertain. Kept a low VFR cig for airports on the western edge of the cloud cover, with MVFR for FKL, DUJ and LBE where better low level moisture is progged. These areas also have a higher probability of MVFR cigs in recent NBM guidance. The clouds should gradually clear late tonight through early Sunday morning as the high builds further across the Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley region. A tight pressure gradient between low pressure along the East Coast, and high pressure across the Midwest, will maintain gusty wind through early evening. A decreasing gradient and loss of mixing should result in gusts ending tonight, with wind veering to the NE on Sunday. .Outlook... High pressure should maintain VFR conditions until restrictions and rain returns Tuesday and Wednesday with the approach and passage of a cold front. VFR should return Thursday under high pressure.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...None. OH...None. WV...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for WVZ514.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Milcarek NEAR TERM...Milcarek SHORT TERM...WM/22 LONG TERM...WM AVIATION...WM

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