Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
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FXUS61 KPBZ 231646
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1246 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather and a warming trend is expected through Monday. The
next chance of rain returns Tuesday. Temperature will stay
above average to close out the month.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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KEY MESSAGES:
- Seasonally cool conditions will prevail with decreasing cloud
cover.
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Radar trends indicate that precipitation has come to a close for
the area as drier and cooler air fills in behind a cold front.
Upper level clouds are departing, but northerly flow over Lake
Erie, low-level cold advection, and a passing mid-level
shortwave trough will all be favorable for stratocumulus
maintenance for much of the day. This will act to limit daytime
high recoveries through this afternoon, even with the March
sun. Daytime mixing below the inversion may allow for gusts of
up to 20mph to 30mph this afternoon in an elevated pressure
gradient behind the low.
Surface saturation and cold advection with orographic influences
has led to dense fog development in eastern Tucker County,
justifying a dense fog advisory. Probabilities of fog decrease
after 4p as dry air reinforcement arrives.
By the time late afternoon and evening comes around, there is
some indication that mixing will overcome saturation below the
inversion and allow drier air to clear some low-cloud cover,
particularly in eastern Ohio. If this does realize, temperatures
could peak a few degrees higher before sunset.
Overnight tonight, there is some deviance in the cloud cover
forecast. If mixing and clearing is more robust today, there is
a higher probability those clear conditions will persist
overnight. If not, some low clouds may linger, most likely for
the ridges and northwest Pennsylvania. Utilizing efficient
radiate cooling, lows are expected to bottom out around 10
degrees below average, with the most temperature uncertainty
tied to cloud cover uncertainty.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry weather through Monday under high pressure
- Warmer temperatures Sunday and Monday
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A broad surface high will move north of the region Sunday as
minor 500mb height rises are anticipated. This will keep the
area dry and should provide mainly clear skies. The colder air
aloft will be shoved northeastward as the upper level heights
slowly rise. Sunday will still be a bit cool with temperatures
at or just below seasonal averages.
Shortwave continues across the Upper Ohio Valley region through
Monday. A warming trend is expected on Monday as the ridge axis
shifts east of the area, and the flow veers to the south. Highs
are expected to be 10 to 15 degrees above average by Monday.
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.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Rain chances return Tuesday and Wednesday with a cold front
- Mainly dry and seasonable to end the week
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Model ensembles indicate a trough across the central CONUS will
advance slowly eastward toward the Upper Ohio Valley region
Tuesday and Wednesday. Increasing rain chances are expected as
the trough and its associated surface cold front track east
across the area. The front is expected to move east of the area
by Thursday, though some uncertainty exists in how far east it
will progress before a wave of low pressure tracks north along
it. Maintained slight-low chance pops due to the uncertainty.
High pressure is expected to build across the region Thursday
night and Friday, with dry and seasonable weather expected.
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.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A slow improvement to MVFR cigs is expected to continue this
afternoon, with a return to VFR especially for airports west of
I 79 as high pressure begins to build in, and dry advection
occurs. Stratocu is expected to persist tonight for airports
outside of Ohio, though cig levels are uncertain. Kept a low VFR
cig for airports on the western edge of the cloud cover, with
MVFR for FKL, DUJ and LBE where better low level moisture is
progged. These areas also have a higher probability of MVFR cigs
in recent NBM guidance.
The clouds should gradually clear late tonight through early
Sunday morning as the high builds further across the Lower Great
Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley region. A tight pressure gradient
between low pressure along the East Coast, and high pressure
across the Midwest, will maintain gusty wind through early
evening. A decreasing gradient and loss of mixing should result
in gusts ending tonight, with wind veering to the NE on Sunday.
.Outlook...
High pressure should maintain VFR conditions until restrictions
and rain returns Tuesday and Wednesday with the approach and
passage of a cold front. VFR should return Thursday under high
pressure.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for WVZ514.-- End Changed Discussion --
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SYNOPSIS...Milcarek
NEAR TERM...Milcarek
SHORT TERM...WM/22
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...WM