Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 230710 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 310 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure should maintain dry weather today as it slides east. Slow moving low pressure will return rain chances tonight through mid week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Ridging should maintain dry weather today. SE flow and mixing should result in high temperatures above seasonal levels.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Ridging should shift E-NE this evening as vertically stacked low pressure slowly tracks across the TN Valley. An initial shortwave in srly flow ahead of the low should return rain chances this evening and tonight, though dry air in place should initially limit this potential. Better rain chances are expected late tonight and Tuesday with increasing deep layer moisture and shortwave support as the low drifts NE, despite a downsloping shallow serly low level flow. The SE wind is expected to become gusty on the lee side of the ridges, though model sounding progs indicate the strongest winds capped above an inversion with gusts of 20-30 kt expected. The upper low is expected to be absorbed by an upper trough as it crosses the Lower Great Lakes and OH Valley region on Wed, with rain chances continuing. Rain chances should diminish Wed night as the trough shifts E to New England. Temperatures are expected to be below seasonal levels.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Model ensembles and WPC progs indicate dry weather should return for late week under weak surface high pressure. Rain chances return as a trough advances out of the Midwest and crosses the region late Friday through part of Saturday. Dry weather should return through early next week as surface high pressure builds under a NE CONUS upper trough. Below average temperatures are expected to continue, with a return to near seasonal level early in the week with rising heights and upper ridging.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period, although clouds will begin to thicken and lower this afternoon and evening. Light rain may arrive after 00Z as well, but minor if any restrictions are expected through the evening. Wind gusts of up to 25 knots are possible in downsloping along and just west of the ridges overnight. More general gusts of up to 20 knots are expected areawide this afternoon out of the southeast. OUTLOOK... MVFR/IFR conditions are likely late Monday night through Wednesday for all sites with slow moving low pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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