Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 130749 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 349 AM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Snow showers and cold will plague the region through most of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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The Great Lakes upper-level low will slowly move southeastward today, reaching North-Central PA by this evening. The pool of cold air aloft, and continued northwest flow, will encourage the development of scattered snow showers through the afternoon. Will increase PoPs this afternoon, as the next trough axis, swinging around the western flank of the 500 low, will increase lift and deepen the saturation layer. The favored upslope regions will see appreciable snow accumulations, thus a winter weather advisory has been issued for the ridge counties. Temperatures today will remain well below normal.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Snow showers will continue into Wednesday as the upper low moves eastward and colder air behind the exiting low spreads across the area. This again will favor the upslope areas, but scattered snow showers will be common for most. There may be a break in widespread snow showers late Wednesday and Wednesday night as the cold pool aloft drifts toward the northeast and a drier air mass fills in behind. Models are now showing another cold front swinging through late Wednesday night and Thursday morning, which will likely redevelop snow showers. Another period of cold air advection is expected behind the boundary on Thursday. Temperatures will continue to be well below average. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The pattern looks to settle down by the weekend as upper level ridging develops. There appears to be broad consensus among operational and ensemble guidance in this. Will keep the forecast mainly dry for at least the first half of the weekend. A general warming trend is expected with above average temperatures by Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MVFR, with lcl IFR in scattered snow showers under cold northwesterly flow will persist through the TAF period. OUTLOOK... Periodic restrictions are likely through midweek with persistent upper troughing. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for MDZ001. OH...None. PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for PAZ074- 076. WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for WVZ510>514. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.