Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 260357 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1157 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will bring dry weather for Thursday before rain chances return Friday with low pressure.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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Persistent stratocu in NW flow across portions of the area should slowly decrease overnight as sfc high pressure builds in. Lows are expected to be around 5 degrees below average.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Short wave ridging and a brief spell of high pressure at the surface will keep the area dry Thursday. A slow moving southern stream system is projected across the Mid-Atlantic Region Thursday night. Models differ slightly on the exact track as it turns the corner and begins to phase with the broader trough. This track will play a vital role in just how far west the precipitation shield will come. Will carry a blend, but will favor the easternmost models (NAM, EC). Regardless, rain chances will increase later in the day Friday and Friday night as the broader trough axis crosses the area. This will also usher in cooler than average temperatures for the early part of the weekend. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High confidence through the extended period as the rainy and cool end of the week gives way to a warm and dry trend. High pressure will begin to build at the surface late Saturday night into Sunday. This will bring an end to precipitation chances and establish clearing sky. Temperatures will temporarily be held in check Sunday with lingering northwest flow aloft, but this will quickly change heading into the middle of next week. A building ridge will pass to our east by Tuesday evening enhancing warming with southwest flow. Highs will soar into at least the mid and upper 70s by Wednesday. The next appreciable chance of precipitation will come by late next week. && .AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Restrictions via low-MVFR and IFR stratus are expected to further ease as high pressure builds and dry advection continues tonight. General VFR can be expected for Thursday with light wind. OUTLOOK... The next chance for general restrictions is expected with the crossing of weak low pressure on Friday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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