Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 190918 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 518 AM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Snow and rain showers will plague the region today with, and in the wake of passing low pressure. Dry weather can then be expected through early next week along with more seasonal temperature.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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No changes were needed for the predawn update. Previous... A crossing shortwave generated a widespread, albeit soft rain last night, but the passage has initiated cold advection over the region, and the next in series of disturbances will not be so agreeable. Expect snow showers to develop toward, or shortly after daybreak as the deeper trailing system reinitiates lift and resultant precipitation. The forecast has been altered considerably from previous to account for the aforementioned frontal penetration as well as quicker progression expectations as per the latest deterministic trends. Expect more widespread snow showers, and some rain over the south, during the first half of the day with diminished coverage thereafter. No accumulation problems are expected given filtered late-April sun, warm ground, and system progession, but the convection will be accompanied by decent wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph, up to 40 mph on the highest elevations. A Wind Advisory was considered for those areas, but deeper mixing did not coincide with higher wind aloft and momentum transfer was marginal at best. Day shift will monitor. As the HRRR handled the overnight shortwave and precip. well, that solution was appropriated for this mornings POP trends with only minor alterations. No real changes were needed/made to the cold temperature forecast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Friday and Saturday will be cool days of improvement as surface high pressure builds under cold northwest flow. Expect highs for those days 10 to 15 degrees under the averages respectively. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Split flow is projected over the CONUS next week with nrn stream ridging and a progressing srn stream low forecast to support dry conditions with a trend toward more seasonable warmth for the Upper Ohio. The next chance for precipitation now looks to be with the advance of that srn stream low, which may shunt sufficient moisture for some light rain by Tuesday night as it phases with a more powerful nrn stream system. Confidence in the scenario is not good given doubts about phase-timing. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MVFR and eventual IFR, especially with vsby in snow showers, will return this morning as another disturbance spread snow showers over the region with a rapid advance. Also of concern will be sfc wind gusts as mixing deepens under cooling mid levels. Expect gusts around 25 kts on NNW wind. Overall improvement can be expected tonight, but MVFR stratcu will linger in the cold flow off the Lakes. OUTLOOK...General VFR may then be anticipated through early next week as high pressure builds. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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