Area Forecast Discussion
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689 FXUS61 KPBZ 170915 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 515 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Crossing low pressure will spread a light wintry mix of precipitation along and south of Interstate 70 this morning. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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No changes needed for the predawn update Previous... Changes for this mornings update included POP and temperature adjustments using the latest HRRR and a blend of other guidance as well as weather grids using blended thickness and temperature trends. Filling low pressure emerging from the mid west is expected to generate a wintry precip. mix generally along and south of Interstate 70 today. Although overall precip. amounts are expected to remain light (<1/4 inch as per RFC), concern for a glaze of ice via freezing rain continues with strong warm advection indicated above the boundary layer, although that potential will at least initially be inhibited by wet-bulbing. The Winter Weather Advisory for an ice glaze over the ridges of WV and MD was thus expanded and includes counties along and south of I 70. System progression is also forecast to end precip earlier, so that trend was also input for the afternoon.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... Dry weather and seasonably cool temperature can then be expected into Monday as surface high pressure builds under northwest flow aloft. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The advance of southern stream low pressure toward the Mid Atlantic Region will provide likely precip. chances into mid week, with warm advection again generating expectations of a precip. mix over the region. Cold advection under upper troughing behind that system is likely to restrict temperature until the weekend. An emerging Plains low is then expected to begin shunting warmer air over the Upper Ohio once again. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure should maintain VFR conditions through early morning as it slides E. Weakening low pressure is progged to cross the OH/TN Valley regions today, with deterioration to MVFR and a wintry mix of precip for ports S of I 70. VFR should continue N of I 70, though cigs are expected to lower. Building high pressure should return any deterioration to VFR this eve. OUTLOOK... Restriction potential returns with low pressure Tue and Wed. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ001. OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for OHZ039-048>050-057>059-068-069. PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for PAZ029-031-075-076. WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for WVZ002>004-012-021-509>511. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for WVZ512>514. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.