Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 151605 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1205 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Periodic snow showers and cold temperatures are expected the rest of the week under upper level low pressure. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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With the noon update, only tweak made was to pull heavy snow wording from afternoon zones as the bulk of the snow squall has moved east of the forecast area. Previous discussion follows. Drier air will once again take hold. This will limit snow showers through much of the morning and early afternoon, south of the PA Turnpike. North of the Turnpike, snow showers will remain fairly common as there is a little better moisture availability below 850mb. Tonight, another shot of cold advection will generate snow showers nearly areawide. As these showers expand southward, light accumulation and brief reduction in visibility is possible. No significant accumulation is expected outside of the ridges and north of I-80 where a couple inches looks possible through Friday until snow showers diminish with building high pressure. Areas with accumulation should remain under advisory criteria on average...but localized areas >3" will be possible at higher elevations favoring northwest flow. Well below normal temperatures will continue through Friday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Dry conditions will be in place by Friday night before a relatively quick moving wave returns precipitation to the forecast area on Saturday. Guidance appears to show slightly better consensus on track...with areas south of Pittsburgh most likely to see precipitation. A brief period of light freezing rain at onset remains a possibility Saturday morning so have included a mention in the HWO...but based off deterministic runs, ensembles, analogs and considering the short this time it looks like it would be a trace at best. Most locations should rise into the 40s on Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Minimal change was needed in the extended with reasonable continuity in model guidance. The next disturbance looks to begin to impact the region later on Monday...with continued unsettled conditions and below normal temperatures through Thursday as longwave trough deepens again over the northeast. && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR conditions expected through most of the day. A cold front will pass through the area during the afternoon hours. Restrictions are possible at FKL and DUJ in snow showers, however, widespread restrictions are not expected until after the forecast period. OUTLOOK... Periodic restrictions are likely through Friday with persistent upper troughing and cold NW flow.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.